The introduction of China’s beef safeguard tariff in 2026 has sharpened the focus on where exposure sits within Australia’s beef export sector. Using average annual export values since 2024, the state level breakdown highlights that the risk is unevenly distributed, reflecting differences in market mix, processing profiles and historical trade relationships with China.
New South Wales emerges as the most exposed state in proportional terms. Around 35 percent of the state’s beef export value has flowed to China in recent years, equating to roughly A$0.6 billion out of a A$1.7 billion total export value. This high share reflects NSW’s strong presence in chilled and higher value manufacturing beef that has traditionally fitted well into Chinese demand. While NSW is not Australia’s largest beef exporter by volume, the concentration of value going into China means processors and exporters in the state are particularly sensitive to any reduction in access or profitability under the new tariff regime.
Western Australia shows a similar pattern of exposure, with China accounting for around 34 percent of total beef export value. Although WA’s total beef export task is comparatively small at roughly A$0.25 billion, the reliance on China as a destination is high. This reflects WA’s geographic proximity to Asia and the structure of its export programs, particularly for frozen and manufacturing beef. Any tariff induced slowdown in Chinese demand is therefore likely to be felt quickly by WA based exporters and abattoirs, even if the absolute dollar impact is smaller than in eastern states.
Victoria sits in the middle of the exposure spectrum. China accounts for about 18 percent of Victorian beef export value, or close to A$0.4 billion from a A$2.2 billion total. Victoria’s diversified market portfolio, spanning China, Japan, South Korea, the Middle East and the United States, provides some insulation. However, the state’s large processing footprint means that any disruption to established Chinese trade flows still matters, particularly for plants geared towards grain fed and chilled product specifications.
Queensland, despite being Australia’s largest beef exporting state by value, is relatively less exposed. Only around 12 percent of Queensland’s beef export value has been destined for China, equivalent to just under A$0.6 billion from a A$5 billion total. Queensland’s dominance in the US, Japan and Korea markets, particularly for grass fed and manufacturing beef, significantly dilutes its reliance on China. As a result, while Queensland exporters will still feel the loss of margin on China bound product, the state as a whole is better positioned to redirect volumes into alternative markets.
South Australia and Tasmania have minimal direct exposure. South Australia’s China share sits at just 2 percent, while Tasmania’s is around 6 percent. In both cases, total beef export values are small relative to the eastern mainland states, and market access has historically been more diversified or focused on niche programs. For these states, the China tariff is unlikely to be a material driver of industry outcomes.
Critically, while the tariff represents a clear headwind for exporters and processors with high China exposure, it is unlikely to translate into a broad based cattle price shock. Global beef supply remains tight and export demand for Aussie beef from the United States, Japan and South Korea remains strong. These markets provide viable alternative homes for Australian beef, albeit often at different price points and specifications.
If Australia also moves into a herd rebuild phase in 2026, the resulting tightening in cattle availability would further buffer producers from downside price risk. In this environment, competition for cattle is likely to remain firm, particularly for animals suited to export markets with strong demand. The primary adjustment is therefore expected to occur at the exporter and processor level, where margins may be compressed as product is reallocated away from China and into more competitive markets.
Additionally the tariff won’t come into effect until the quota safe-guard level is triggered, likely to be around the middle of 2026. However, when it does come into force, the states most exposed to China’s beef tariff are New South Wales and Western Australia on a proportional basis, with Victoria facing moderate exposure and Queensland comparatively insulated. The overall impact is more likely to be felt through shifts in export flows and processor profitability rather than a sustained fall in cattle prices, especially if global supply remains tight and Australia enters a rebuilding phase.
Matt Dalgleish is a director of Episode3.net and co-host of the Agwatchers podcast.