Each autumn market analysts study weather forecasts, in anticipation of the break and what it will mean for the year ahead. This year, however, all eyes are on the tornado that is Trump and his tariffs.
Senior Manager Industry Affairs, Bendigo Bank Agribusiness, Neil Burgess, on Friday said the agricultural sector was on "tenterhooks" as it waited to find out if US tariffs on beef and lamb will be imposed and this was anticipated to drive volatility throughout March.
He made the comments in an interview with APlus News coinciding with the launch of Bendigo Bank’s Agribusiness Monthly Commodity Update.
"Certainly we've seen the impact of tariffs in the grain markets and while Australia is not directly affected with tariffs, we are indirectly affected and we've seen that market turmoil, grain prices, dipped sharply," he said.
"There has been some recovery as Trump has walked back the tariffs on Canada and Mexico. But the impacts on China and the Chinese economy could indirectly have an impact certainly on the grain markets for Australia."
Mr Burgess said Australia should be in a very favourable position with the US beef herd at an all-time low.
"As the number one exporter to the US, we are meeting their demand. The US herd is at an all time low and it's not like you can just wave the magic wand and increase your herd. So this is going to take some time," he said.
"Currently, from the research that I've seen, the US is short about 3 million head just to meet the current demand.
"If tariffs are placed on, it will be interesting to see whether the impact of those tariffs are as great as people are first thinking.
"So I guess the takeaway message is everybody's watching this space very, very closely until we actually see some movement from the Trump administration.
"For me, I'll be watching what is coming out of the US administration, whether there are further impacts on China, on Europe, you know, what is going to happen with Canada and Mexico, and of course, keeping a very, very close eye and see what the rhetoric is vis a vis Australian exports to the US."
Meanwhile, on Friday, Australia's trade minister provided assures he would use past lessons to back agriculture producers.
Australia has thrown its support behind its beef and wine producers as the US threatens to expand tariffs to agricultural products.
Tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium have already come into effect following Australia's failure to secure an exemption, and billions of dollars in Aussie beef could be next on the chopping block.
After speaking to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Friday morning, Trade Minister Don Farrell said he would stand with beef, wine and other agricultural exporters to protect their interests and compared the situation to discussions that recently led China to lift similar trade restrictions on Australia.
"The Albanese government has your back," he told the Global Good Forum in Melbourne.
"We'll stand with you from shoulder-to-shoulder to protect our trade interest, just like we did to resolve all those issues with China."
As US President Donald Trump pledges to protect American agriculture there is still limited information from his government about further tariffs. This makes estimating the potential impact difficult, but the US was Australia's most valuable cattle industry export market in 2023-24, totalling about $3.4 billion according to Rural Bank.