In a La Niña summer it would be unusual if there wasn’t a big rain event occurring somewhere in Australia.
At the moment, that somewhere is Queensland.
Potential rain from Wednesday 30th November to Saturday 3rd December.
Make the most of it though, because the following map shows that the deluges are certainly not over:
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly: The large blue area over the Pacific Ocean encourages dry weather out there, while the large orange area off Queensland and Indonesia encourages wet weather here. The Pacific Ocean continues to push excess tropical moisture towards Australia.
The blue versus orange situation in the Pacific Ocean means we are still firmly in a phase where excess tropical moisture is pushed towards Australia. When that meets up with low pressure, those in the path have heavier than usual rain. This is known as La Niña.
Forecasts show that La Niña could end early in 2023, but with so much imbalance in the ocean, it won’t turn off the tap immediately. Big rain events are likely to continue each week, through the first few months of the year.
What does vary from week to week is who gets the rain. Which areas have low pressure converting that tropical moisture into heavy falls? Which areas have high pressure blocking the rain?
The answer to that is only clear in the short term. Head to Jane’s Weather to see the details on what the weather models are projecting for any spot in Australia for the next ten days.
This is our third La Niña summer in a row, and we don’t have forecasts for next summer yet (they only go out six months). However, all models look neutral as we go through autumn and winter - and one model actually creeps towards the El Niño side of the scale. Early days on that, but I’ll keep you updated.
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