El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are both on the cusp of beginning. This encourages drier than average weather (overall) for the second half of 2023, across much of Australia.
Over the past week, we’ve seen rain extend inland through south-eastern Australia for the first time in weeks. We’re about to see a repeat of this - but it should go much further, spreading through much of the eastern states.
Where's this El Nino? Wasn't 2023 meant to be dry? 2023 is likely to be a dry year overall, but the important part is when that dry weather actually affects different parts of the country.
There is the potential for decent rain over south-east Australia in the next week, but if you look at the map carefully, you’ll see that if you’re away from the coast and mountains, that potential quickly dries up.
We’re heading into El Nino and the dry phase of the Indian Ocean (IOD) - but we’re not there yet. The positive IOD doesn’t begin until Winter, and El Nino doesn’t impact us until Spring.
The Easter long weekend is shaping up to be an eventful time in weather.
After months of wet weather affecting those in northern Australia, the next week brings lots of activity for southern Australia.
A tropical low near the Gulf of Carpentaria has been there for a while… but now it’s starting to move southwards, pushing rain across much of Queensland.
2023 is shaping up to be a very different weather environment than what we experienced in the past three years.
As I write this at lunchtime on Wednesday (I write that statement because you should always check how old the information is before you act on it), we have Severe Cyclone Freddy off the northwest coast, and another tropical low off the northeast coast.
The southern Australian fire season has been very quiet so far in the southeast, as one would expect in a La Nina summer, while in the less La Nina affected southwest bushfires have burned.
La Niña is still sending excess moisture from the Pacific Ocean towards eastern Australia, but the day to day weather pattern that creates rain from that moisture shifted late last year.
The projected rain over the next week shows a lot of activity over the western interior. The ‘break in the rain’ we had there has come to an end - and it means it is once again difficult to build up extreme heat.
In a La Niña summer it would be unusual if there wasn’t a big rain event occurring somewhere in Australia.
The oceans around us are making major shifts over the next few months. These oceans drive how much rain we see - but before you think the tap will instantly turn off, do keep in mind that it takes several months to see the change here.
Anyone ready for a break? How about a fair bit of sunshine… and warmer temperatures to go with it?
Another week and another big rain system. We know these will keep coming as we continue through spring and summer, because the Pacific Ocean is in a La Nina phase and sends excessive tropical moisture towards Australia, while the Southern Annular Mode (a driver of our pressure) is likely to remain favourable for low pressure development in the weeks and months ahead.
The Indian Ocean starts to ease its push of moisture towards Australia, but the Pacific Ocean is already kicking into gear, as the next La Nina pushes moisture from the Pacific Ocean towards Australia.
Another week and yet another example of how La Nina and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are working together to influence Australia’s weather in a big way.
Let’s set the scene… We have an imminent La Nina (meaning that the Pacific Ocean is sending us lots more tropical moisture than usual).
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has declared there is now a 70% chance of La Nina occurring this Spring and Summer.
Last week the Bureau of Meteorology declared that we are in a negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). You may be asking what actually is that, and how does it affect me?
Auctions
Results