Larger offerings of cattle, both via the saleyards and in slaughter terms, indicates how the beef industry is moving towards cyclical production highs in the cattle cycle this year.
Slightly softer saleyard yardings out of Queensland in Q1 2025 suggest numbers are yet to fully present in the saleyards this year for Queensland.
Forward bids and offers on the StoneX Cattle Swap have risen to less of an extent than the spot market.
So far in 2025, cattle supply has continually grown in all measurable metrics compared to the year-to-date 2024 and historical average volumes.
At a point where general market activity is significantly hampered by short working weeks, this window gives us an opportunity to examine some more structural aspects of cattle supply so far in 2025.
March 2025 saleyard throughput for NSW was the highest monthly saleyard throughput for since May 2018.
Nationally, March yardings were 21% or 52,500 head higher than March 2024 volumes and 11% or 30,300 head higher than the 10-year March average.
Victorian saleyard throughput for Q1 2025 was 94% or 120,000 head higher than the five-year Q1 average and 50% or 84,000 head higher than Q1 2024.
Q1 Queensland saleyard yardings down 14% or 27,000 head on Q1 2024 and lower than the five-year average by 5% or 8,900 head.
Year-to-date NLRS cattle slaughter is higher than YTD 2024 volumes by 261,000 head or 15%.
The actual detail of the numbers may be less interesting to some, however the purpose of highlighting the figures, particularly against year-ago results and longer-term historical performance such as 10-year averages, indicates the growth in supply as a result of the herd's increase over the past few years, as marketable cattle numbers continue to build.
The outlier to the general increases in saleyard throughput (recognised as one measure of supply) is the softer start to 2025 which Queensland has had. The spring of 2024 will have contributed to this, as will generally rain events that have occurred spasmodically so far this year in the state, further delaying supply. But it is interesting to note the slower start for our largest cattle state from a saleyard perspective.
Also acknowledging that more cattle in Queensland will continue to be marketed direct to either feedlots or processors.
National slaughter volumes currently operating well ahead of 2024 for the first quarter of the new year add to the story about continued growth in the herd and in turn, more availability of slaughter ready cattle.
Despite widespread rains in late March, the StoneX Australian Cattle Swap’s forward bids and offers have been much less impacted in terms of pricing than the broader spot market.
Forward bids and offers have risen to reflect higher spot prices, but not to the same extent the spot market has risen. Users of the swap indicate that they believe cattle supply will weigh on pricing as the sector moves into May onwards.
We’re observing longer-term trading interest from some swap users, out to December 2025 as an example, nine months away.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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