Two months ago in this column, I highlighted the sharp rise in national sheep slaughter to its highest level since the 2019 drought. At the time, I anticipated that these elevated slaughter volumes would lead to increased mutton exports.
Now, as mutton’s “spring flush” rolls on, slaughter has continued to rise, in late October sheep slaughter reached levels not seen since November 2006. A strong overall October monthly slaughter performance in October propelled monthly mutton exports to their level since records began in 1994.
Looking ahead, I expect export volumes for November to remain strong when data is released in early December. This is based on the strong weekly slaughter recorded in late October and the first half of November.
As shown in Figure 1 below, mutton supply volumes in the second half of 2024 have consistently exceeded the 10-year weekly average. For week ending Sunday November 17, national mutton supply was 25% (25,000 head) above the 10-year average and 75% (55,000) head above the corresponding week in 2023.
Figure 1. National Weekly Mutton Yarding’s, 2024 versus 2023 and 10-year weekly average.
These numbers fully support that rise in sheep slaughter seen in the second half of this year which is directly translating into the higher export volumes. Expect that to continue. There’s a couple of reasons for this:
In September I shared my view that mutton destined for processing might face price pressure due to higher supply, while well-bred breeding ewes could see improved demand from producers.
Recent results at major special sheep sales across the south in recent weeks have confirmed strong demand for breeding ewes remains in the market. Market performance has exceeded agents and producers’ expectations, reflecting the underlying demand for breeding sheep despite the challenging seasonal conditions faced by many in the south in 2024.
However, I was off the mark about mutton destined for processing. The strengthening mutton market has somewhat surprised me, especially given how strong saleyard supplies (see Figure 1) and slaughter volumes are. This can be explained in part by two main dynamics:
In the May wave of MLA’s Sheep Producer Intentions Survey (SPIS), the ewe flock reached 48 million head, the highest in the modern flock era (post 2007).
This large supply of ewes in the flock will see mutton supply remain elevated for the foreseeable future, translating into a continuation of strong processing and export performance.
While seasonality will influence this, the high supply is expected to be met by growing demand from export markets. Notably the US, as consumers trade down from expensive domestic beef to more affordable Australian mutton to manage household spending. I foresee this pattern for mutton mirroring the trend already occurring in Australian goatmeat in the same market.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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