Australian agriculture poised for record highs despite export challenges, reports ABARES

Australia's agriculture sector is projected to reach its third-highest production levels on record in 2024-25, driven by an improved seasonal outlook, according to the latest ABARES Agricultural Commodities and Australian Crop Report.  

However, Grain Producers Australia (GPA) responded to the report with cautious optimism, acknowledging the variable seasonal conditions across major grain-producing regions. 

 The report released this week showed that the gross value of agriculture, fisheries and forestry was expected to increase by 2%, from $87.6b in 2023–24 to $89.5b in 2024–25. 

 Executive Director of ABARES, Dr Jared Greenville, said this quarter’s report showed an expected improvement in agriculture following drier conditions in 2023-24.  

 However, a lower exportable supply of grains and oilseeds in 2024-25 will see the value of agriculture, fisheries and forestry exports decline by 4% to $73.1b in 2024–25. 

 “Despite the fall in export value, this result will still be the third highest on record,” Dr Greenville said. 

 “Strong global demand for Australian livestock products will support an improvement in prices and production, with the gross value of Australian livestock production and livestock products forecast to increase by 3% to $35.5b in 2024–25. 

 “For crops, despite lower prices resulting from higher global production, the value of crop production is expected to grow by 2% to $48.1b in 2024-25 on the back of higher production levels.” 

 The continued growth from Australian’s horticulture sector, is expected to be at a record high of $17.4b, led by increases in fruit and nuts. 

  “The area to chickpeas is growing 79% in response to recent Indian tariff reductions and a good start to the season in NSW and Queensland. The area for lentil plantings is also at a record 885,000ha,” he said. 

​​The report mentioned that improving seasonal conditions and higher livestock prices were expected to increase the average broadacre farm cash incomes by $45,000 to $149,000 in 2024-25. 

Dr Greenville noted, “the forecasts show Australian agriculture doing what it’s known for – being adaptable to seasonal conditions and able to respond to new market opportunities.”  

 Meanwhile, Grain Producers Australia (GPA) welcomed the forecast with cautious optimism, recognising variable seasonal conditions across the nation’s major grain producing regions. 

GPA Chair, Barry Large, said the ABARES winter crop forecasts were based on above average summer rainfall and timely autumn rainfall that continued to improve soil moisture profiles in Queensland and northern and central NSW. 

Mr Large believed that autumn rainfall had been lower than average across major cropping regions in western Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, where soil moisture levels have remained low. 

“GPA recognises the analysis made in this ABARES report and understands that the variability in the seasonal conditions means potential mixed fortunes for Australian grain producers with continuing challenges and opportunities,” Mr Large said. 

“Australian grain producers will continue to monitor their local conditions closely every day, making critical business decisions based on a range of key factors including the actual costs of production and especially essential farm inputs, pests and disease challenges and grain pricing outlook.” 

ABARES Report Highlights 

The area planted to winter crops in Australia is forecast to remain historically high in 2024–25, rising slightly to 23.6m hectares, 6% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. 

A forecast increase in the area planted to winter crops in Queensland and NSW is likely to more than offset a fall in area in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. 

Here are some other highlights from the report: 

• Wheat production is forecast to increase by 12% to 29.1m tonnes, 10% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. 
• Barley production is forecast to increase by 7% to 11.5m tonnes, 2% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. 
• Canola production is forecast to fall by 5pc to 5.4m tonnes, 21% above the 10-year average to 2023–24. 
• Lentil production is forecast to remain steady, at 1.6m tonnes. This is more than double the 10-year average to 2023–24, with the expansion in area planted to lentils expected to be offset by lower expected yields. 
• Chickpea production is forecast to increase by 133% to 1.1m tonnes, 46% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 
• Area planted to wheat is forecast to rise by 3pc to 12.7m ha. 
• Area planted to barley is forecast to increase by 3% to 4.3m ha. 
• Area planted to canola is forecast to fall by 9% to 3.2m ha in 2024–25. 
• Area planted to winter pulses is forecast to increase by 17% to 2.5m ha, driven by increases in chickpea and lentil plantings.