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The gross value of production for livestock and livestock products is forecast to fall to $31.9 billion in 2023–24, down by 12% from an estimated $36.1bn in 2022–23, according to the government forecaster, ABARES.
An upward revision in production, ABARES found, would not be enough to offset recent price falls.
In their December Agricultural Commodities Report, ABARES said the fall in the gross value of production is driven by a 20% decline in returns for beef, veal and live cattle to $12.1bn. Sheep revenue was forecast to fall 19% to $3.7bn. Lower production values are also forecast for milk (down 3% to $5.9bn) and wool (down 7% to $2.9bn). However, the production value of pork and poultry meat is expected to rise (up 1% to $5.4bn), ABARES found.
Overall, the forecast value of livestock production in 2023–24 is $2.1bn lower than in ABARES September Agricultural Commodities Report. It found the recent decline in average saleyard prices for livestock has more than offset a small upwards revision in production.
Source: ABARES Agricultural Outlook
Average saleyard prices for cattle, sheep, and lambs are forecast to fall in 2023–24 reflecting higher turn-off rates and lower restocker demand. The onset of both El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have led to drier seasonal conditions across Australia resulting in reduced pasture availability and increased supplementary feed prices. ABARES expects this will reduce farm demand for livestock, raise turn-off rates, increase livestock supply in saleyards and lower saleyard prices.
Despite the recent rains, ABARES forecasts pasture availability to remain below 2022–23 levels, with fodder continuing to be in demand from both livestock producers and feedlots.
Annual value of livestock production and livestock products
Source: ABARES
ABARES predicts the following livestock prices;
Average cattle saleyard prices are forecast to fall to 435 cents per kilogram (carcase weight) in 2023–24, down by 34% from 662 cents per kilogram in 2022–23. This price decrease reflects higher cattle supply in saleyards and lower restocker demand. Rising processing capacity and elevated beef export prices are expected to place some upward pressure on average saleyard prices for cattle during the first half of 2024.
Australian beef export prices are also forecast to fall, but remain elevated, as rising global beef supply – particularly from Australia and Brazil – outweighs stronger demand from China and the United States. Beef export prices are forecast to fall by less than the average Australian saleyard price as the growth in global beef supply is forecast to be less than the growth in supply of cattle to Australian saleyards.
Average saleyard prices for both lambs and sheep are forecast to fall in 2023–24 as drier seasonal conditions result in lower restocker demand and increased turn-off rates.
Lamb saleyard prices are forecast to fall to 540 cents per kilogram (carcase weight) in 2023–24, down by 26% from 730 cents per kilogram in 2022–23. Saleyard prices for restocker lambs are expected to fall as drier seasonal conditions reduce restocker demand. A large supply of lambs is also expected due to several years of robust flock growth and strong lambing rates.
Sheep saleyard prices are forecast to fall to 235 cents per kilogram (carcase weight) in 2023–24, down by 43% from 415 cents per kilogram in 2022–23. The supply of sheep available for slaughter is expected to increase following several years of flock growth. Drier conditions will incentivise farmers to cull older stock and non-performing ewes.
reduce pasture availability compared to recent years, prompting higher cattle and sheep turn-off and increased meat production. Beef and sheep meat production are expected to rise as increased slaughter rates more than offset lower weights in 2023–24 (Figure 1.12).
Australian beef and veal production volumes are forecast to rise by 24% to 2.5 million tonnes (carcase weight) in 2023–24 reflecting both drier seasonal conditions and a relatively large cattle herd. The Australian cattle herd is expected to decrease slightly to 25.7 million head in 2023–24 as drier seasonal conditions across Australia increase cattle turn-off and slaughter, particularly for female cattle. As a result of the drier seasonal outlook, producers are expected to proactively destock their herds to retain feed availability and minimise potential damage to paddocks from overgrazing. Increased domestic beef production is expected to lead to a 28% increase in Australian beef and veal export volumes in 2023–24.
Sheep meat production volumes are expected to increase by 15% to 896 thousand tonnes (carcase weight) in 2023–24. The Australian sheep flock is expected to decrease slightly to 71.7 million head in 2023–24 as drier seasonal conditions increase turn-off and slaughter. However, pasture availability was average to above average for most of southern Australia during spring, which is expected to support good joining conditions and lambing rates in 2023–24. Sheep meat export volumes are expected to increase to 588 thousand tonnes in 2023–24 (up by 18% from 500 thousand tonnes in 2022–23) reflecting higher sheep meat production:
