Northern beef producers more positive than southern cattle farmers

A first-of-its-kind survey has given the industry a snapshot of beef producer sentiments in late 2023, with it showing that northern cattle producers were more positive about the year ahead than their southern counterparts. 

The first ever Beef Producers Intentions Survey (BPIS), facilitated by Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), indicated there was a strong sentiment of positivity among producers.  

Of the 3,767 producers surveyed across Australia, 38% said they were optimistic about the beef industry over the next year, while 26% indicated a negative sentiment about the industry. 

MLA Manager for Market Information, Stephen Bignell, said it was important to note that since this survey was conducted in November and December 2023, there had been an improvement in seasonal and market conditions. 

“Towards the end of last year, much of the country experienced a return to better weather conditions following a volatile 2023,” Mr Bignell said.  

“As conditions have improved, confidence has returned, and we are seeing a more optimistic outlook for 2024 from beef producers. 

“The BPIS was developed to get a clearer picture into the state of the industry through the year, and these surveys will be run several times across the year. The vital information provided by producers will help aid industry in research and development and assists MLA to refine and improve the accuracy of its market reporting information.”  

Herd size change 

The BPIS found northern producers are more optimistic than southern producers. There are also variations across the country with the survey showing that Queensland producers are more positive than producers in other states, while producers in WA held a much less positive outlook. The survey indicated that WA producers forecast a 7% decrease in their herd size, while Queensland producers were expecting a 4% increase.  

At a national level there is an overall intention to decrease their on-farm grassfed adult beef cattle herd in the next 12 months. Specifically, 

• 38% indicated they would increase their herd size. 

• 15% indicated it would remain unchanged. 

• 47% indicated they would decrease their herd size. 

Mr Bignell said the reasons to increase or decrease stock were varied and demonstrated the diversity of conditions the Australian beef industry operated within.  

“For those who indicated that they would like to increase their cattle herd, 44% said it was due to them wanting to expand their operations,” Mr Bignell said.  

Prices in the spotlight 

“Nearly a third of respondents said that they expected cattle prices to increase, and a similar amount expected favourable conditions as key reasons to increasing their herd. These reasons were equally favoured among both northern and southern producers,” he said. 

“Producers who said that they would decrease the amount of cattle on-farm did so due to low rainfall (66%) and the volatility around cattle prices (55%). The impact of weather was more dramatic in northern systems with 75% indicating this as the key reason for decreasing numbers.  

“While poor weather outcomes were the major reason for decreasing in southern systems (62%), they were more concerned about price volatility (58%) compared to their northern-based colleagues (46%).” 

Marketing matters 

Producers expected that most of their cattle would be sold through saleyard auctions (65%). 

Smaller producers were more likely to use just a single sales channel with larger producers using more than one sales channel. For the larger producers, sales direct to feedlots and processors were used more often than other producer cohorts.