Australian beef defies declining global production trend

Beef production volumes in the southern hemisphere continue to increase against a global trend of production decline. 

The increases seen in Australia and Brazil aren't enough to offset the production declines in Europe and the US however, with global beef production across 'monitored markets' expected to decline 1% year-on-year in 2023.

Rabobank is forecasting 2024 will "play out in a similar fashion". 

In its recently-released Q4 Global Beef Quarterly report, the bank says the beef sector is seeing ongoing strong consumer demand in the US – although this may be weakening – accompanied by reduced cattle and beef supplies.

In Asia, however, weak demand and high inventory levels are testing the market.

The bank expects North American cattle prices to continue to track at high levels, while southern hemisphere prices remain soft.

Australian cattle prices dropped dramatically – down 28% since June – while New Zealand and Brazil also saw prices fall, but by smaller amounts, the report said.

Cattle prices in the US were steady, while Canadian prices rose 3% between June and October.

Trends to watch for in 2024

Rabobank expects the ongoing slow global economic recovery will limit consumers’ expenditure and likely curb their spending on beef next year.

The quarterly report said in 2023, many markets – particularly in Asian countries – did not experience the growth in consumption expected as economies recovered from Covid-19, and it was clear consumers were being much more cautious in their purchase decisions.

“We expect these conditions will continue into 2024,” it said.

Indications from China are that the type of products in demand is changing, Rabobank said, with more attention being paid to value-for-money products, and less to premium ones, driven by consumer caution.

“This consumer caution may be supported initially by reduced volumes of more expensive North American beef and increased volumes of Australian and South American beef,” the bank said.

“However, when production in the US contracts to the point where it exerts upward price pressure on global beef prices, we may see some pushback from global beef consumers.

"It is possible that 2024 will see margins in beef supply chains being squeezed to manage higher prices and accommodate the consumer.”

Middle East conflict

Conflict in the Middle East is not expected to materially impact beef trade.

“The import volumes of Israel and the Palestinian territories make up approximately 1% of global beef imports,” the report said.

“If the conflict extends across the broader Middle East and North Africa region, the impact on global beef trade remains relatively small.”

The bank estimates the wider Middle East area accounts for 8% of global beef imports, with Egypt being the largest importer, sourcing largely from Brazil (via the Mediterranean Sea).

“However, there may be indirect impacts if fuel and energy costs rise. Furthermore, the Middle East is an important import market for poultry and sheepmeat, and any disruption to this trade may cause a rebalancing of protein trade around the world,” the report said.

Australia

Rabobank senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said for the Australian 
beef sector, “it looks like we have reached the bottom of the market”.

Mr Gidley-Baird said the higher volumes of cattle, congested supply chains, limited processing capacity and forecasts of poor seasonal conditions continued to weigh on the Australian cattle market through the third quarter.

“In response, the ECYI dropped 37% through Q3,” he said.

“Despite the same conditions prevailing in October, prices found a floor and levelled out.

“We believe the producer uncertainty that was causing prices to drop has eased and, as we head toward summer, producers will be more certain about what stock numbers they will run, returning some stability to the market.”

Processing numbers are expected to see some change in the coming months, Mr Gidley-Baird said.

“Abattoirs are believed to have been running strongly for the last seven months, to the extent possible given labour constraints,” he said.

“With the holiday season approaching and some cattle still backed up in the system, it is uncertain if plants will shut down at year end, as is normal, before adding additional shifts in the new year, or if they use this period to get through some of the cattle that have built up in the system.”

Either way, the bank is expecting slaughter numbers to increase in the first quarter of
2024.