Mutton and lamb exports are telling two quite different stories so far in 2023. Mutton exports in March were the third highest monthly export volumes recorded since 1994, while lamb exports are tracking very closely to the five-year average and 2022 levels.
Key Points
Year-to-date mutton exports are 44% higher year-on-year.
Increased exports of lamb to China have balanced out declines to the US.
Economic headwinds in the US and elevated slaughter in Australia are the key drivers.
Total Australian mutton exports reached 21,510 tonnes swt in March– a massive 68% higher than March last year (Figure 1). The lift was largely due to shipments to China which more than doubled compared to last year, while exports to the US also increased some 81% from last year. Increased slaughter of sheep due to easing restocker demand and a significantly larger flock than recent years is driving higher export volumes.
Year-to-date shipments of mutton are 44% higher than last year and 26% higher than the five-year average. Increased volumes are consistent across the top five export destinations – ranging from 15-77% higher year-on-year.
Figure 1: Monthly mutton exports 2021 – April 2023. Source DAFF
Total Australian lamb exports for January-April 2023 are tracking just 5% higher than the same period last year and 1% below the five-year average (Figure 2). Digging deeper into the data reveals that an increase in exports to China has balanced out declines in shipments to the US. Year-to-date volumes to China have increased 30%, while volumes to the US have declined 23%, with China overtaking the US as the number one destination for Australian Lamb in March and April 2023.
Figure 2: Monthly lamb exports 2021 – April 2023. Source DAFF
Consumer demand in the US continues to face economic headwinds with heightened concerns over interest rates and the potential for a recession weighing on household budgeting. While China is absorbing increased supply from Australia at subdued prices compared to recent years.
Lorem Ipsum is simply dummy text of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry's standard dummy text ever since the 1500s
