Joined Ewes: Pregnancy Scanning, Premiums and Price Expectations

With the Autumn months featuring shortened daylight hours and cooling temperatures, the period also traditionally records the largest influx of joined ewe listings through the AuctionsPlus platform. Reviewing AuctionsPlus listings across Autumn since 2018, 22% of all sheep listings are offered as joined lines, with scanned in lamb (SIL) making up 74% of the offering. 

The high frequency of SIL listings comes as no surprise, as vendors seek to maximise buyers’ confidence and competition with as much information as possible about the future potential of the ewes on offer. The larger proportion of SIL listings compared to station mated has been a consistent and clear trend since 2018, with a notable price difference between the two offerings highlighting buyer driven demand for added guarantees and confidence.

SIL ewe offerings peak each year in quarter 2 (see Figure 1 below), with listings increasing year-on-year since 2018 - peaking at 249,144 head in 2021. To date in 2022, listings are tracking slightly ahead of last year, with the consideration that over half of the quarters normal listings are offered in the backend of the second quarter. The impact of continued favourable conditions, paired with a softening market heading into the typical peak listing period for joined stock is set to impact overall breeders listed online this year.

Assessing the premiums achieved for SIL listings by comparing their sale price against station mated listings since 2018, proven Merino breeders (4-7 years), achieve on average a $43/head premium (figure 2), while young Merino breeders (2-4 years) achieve $40/head (figure 3). Currently in 2022, there is a significant increase in the SIL Merino ewe proven breeder premium, which has jumped to $64 - a $27/head increase on last year. This has been fuelled by a shift in buyer behaviours, as the fierce demand from restocker activity has subsided, and selective buying has become prominent - particularly across breeding lines. Typically, the autumn period has the largest volume of joined stock listed online, however, compared to recent years a contraction of ewe listings coupled with softer clearance rates tells a different story. The increased premium between SIL and SM proven Merino breeders particularly rings true, as vendors are willing to spend the extra money on stock which have been pregnancy scanned - as priority is placed on securing stock with assurances they will produce progeny.

In the current market, sheep and lamb buyers are becoming increasingly selective when purchasing breeding stock. The average price for young and proven Merino joined ewes has been trending downward across 2021 and 2022, following a sensational uptick in 2020, as producers across swathes of the eastern states switched into furious restocking. Further to this, while the recent volatility in weekly sale prices can largely be attributed to a “hit or miss” market, underlying fundamentals including age, weight, frame and joining breed add an additional layer to buyer purchasing considerations. With the restocking pace easing, underlying fundamentals, as well as joining status (SIL or SM), have contributed to lowered clearance rates, as price disparities of vendor expectations not aligning with buyer price points increase.

Looking forward to 2023, with another bumper lamb harvest expected in the spring of 2022, selective buying of breeders is expected to continue in the market. While the price differential between SIL and station mated ewes has increased significantly compared to the past five years, it is expected to hold firm into next year, providing seasonal factors and underlying fundamentals continue to remain positive.