Lamb Demand: How Does it Weigh Up?

The historical clearance of AuctionsPlus lamb categories- categorised by weight.

From January 2017 through to late 2022, AuctionsPlus lamb listings have accounted for 50-54% of total sheep and lamb throughput on an annualised basis.While the current landscape of the sheep and lamb market is geared towards flock rebuilding, seasonal conditions and access to markets remain key factors driving lamb sales. As of 21st November 2022, AuctionsPlus lamb listings totaled 1,703,458 head – back 14% on the same period last year.

As wet conditions continue to play a pivotal role in a disrupted 2022 new season lamb supply, sustained demand from processors for quality and finished lambs underpins competition. Additionally, the opportunity to grow lambs out on pasture is ever-present, with restocker lambs traditionally accounting for most of the lambs marketed online across the next couple of months. Analysis from 2017 through to 2022 into lamb weights, and their respective clearance rates for the six key categories offered on AuctionsPlus, showcases the impact that weight has on clearance rates.

Table 1 below highlights the weight range and average clearance rate for each respective lamb category from 2017 through to 2022. The lamb liveweights between 25-50kg have been examined further, as most listings occur within this range. Outside of this, limited listing numbers at the upper and lower weight limits skew clearance rates and are not an accurate reflection of true buyer demand.

Table 1: Lamb clearance by category on AuctionsPlus as an average between 2017- November 2022. Note- lambs listings weighing <15kg and >65kg have been excluded from the table due to small sample size. A focus has been placed on weights ranging from 25-50kg with >75% of listings occurring in this range.

The crossbred lamb category is the largest of the six lamb categories, accounting for 40% of all lamb listings (on average between 2017-2022). Looking to the distribution of lamb liveweight (Figure 1), most crossbred listings sit between 30-35kg (29%) and 35-40kg (32%). As seen in Table 1, the highest clearance rate achieved for the category is for lambs weighing between 40-45kg - reaching 87% on average.

Figure 1: Average distribution of lamb liveweight (between 15-65kg) by category between 2017-November 2022.

Merino wether lambs account for 17% of all lamb listings, with the bulk of listings sitting between 30-35kg (28%) and 35-40kg (26%). Liveweights for the category have been on a steady upward trajectory since 2017, following improved seasonal conditions, which supported a 17% lift in liveweight across listings from 30.8kg in 2018, to 35.9kg in 2022 (YTD). Clearance rates between 2017-2022 for the category averaged 82%, with the 45-50kg weight range returning the highest clearance rate across the focused weight ranges.

First cross ewe lambs account for 11% of lamb listings between 2017-2022 while the YTD 2022 proportion for the category sits slightly higher at 13%. The weight distribution for the category is spread broadly from 25-55kg lwt to 60-65kg lwt, with most listings weighing 35-40kg (17%), 40-45kg (18%) and 45-50kg (17%). Clearance rates for the category averaged 67% across the five-year period, with 2022 clearance rates averaging 53%. The 25-30kg weight range for the category has returned the highest clearance rate - reaching 82% on average between 2017-2022, while the 30-35kg category also performed well with an average clearance of 75%.

Shedding breed lamb numbers have accounted for 3% of 2022 lamb throughput YTD - holding consistent with the five-year average. Between 2017-2022 lambs weighing between 25-40kg lwt account for 74% of listings, with 30% of lambs weighing between 30-35kg lwt (Figure 1). The average liveweight of shedding breed lambs has increased by 29% since 2018, to average 37.8kg in 2022 - sitting 12% above the five-year-average of 33.7kg. Clearance rates for the shedding breed lambs averaged 84% over the past five years, with 2022 YTD clearance reaching 79%. Accounting for the largest proportion of listings, the 30-35kg category returns the highest clearance across shedding breed lambs - reaching 90% on average.