Annual average numbers of cattle on feed in Australia have grown from around 623,000 head in the early 2000s to record levels of 1.41 million head as at the end of 2024. Over the same time frame grain fed slaughter numbers has increased from 1.9 million head to 3.1 million head per annum.
In percentage terms, the number of cattle on feed has lifted by 127% over the last 25 years while the number of cattle turned off that were grain finished has increased by 65%. Such strong growth in feedlot numbers with grain-fed slaughter volumes lifting by a smaller amount can only mean one thing. There are more cattle in the feedlot system being held for longer.
Indeed, we can measure average cattle turnover per year relatively easily using the annual figures provided by the Australian Lot Feeders Association (ALFA). Dividing the annual turnoff per year by the average number of cattle on feed over the year allows us to measure how many times per year that cattle have been replaced nationally.
For much of the 2000 to 2016 period the annual turnover in the Australian feedlot system ranged between 2.9 to 3.4 times per year. However during 2017/18 this ratio of turnover began to trend downwards towards 2.6 cattle turnovers per year. In recent years the turnover ratio has dipped again to a low of 2.1 turnovers per year in 2023.
Analysis of the change in cattle turnover each year from 2000 to 2024 highlights that during the 2000 to 2016 period much of the change in one year was reversed in subsequent years. However in the last decade there has been a steady erosion of the cattle turnover ratio, particularly evident from 2017 to 2019 and 2021 to 2023. This suggests an extended period where cattle have been held for longer on feed, on average each year.
In the last decade we have noted a rise in the proportion of Wagyu cattle in the national herd, particularly F1 feeder types, and also an increase to longer fed Angus programmes. This would account for the reduction seen in the cattle turnover ratio in recent years.
The number of cattle on feed for more than 300 days saw a significant lift during 2018 with numbers almost doubling from 2017 levels. A further large jump in numbers of cattle on feed for more than 300 days was seen in 2024. This is attributed to an increase in the proportion of Wagyu cattle being held in Australian feedlots.
The result of greater numbers of long-fed Angus and Wagyu cattle in Australian feedlots has seen the days on feed (DOF) average begin to climb steadily since 2016. For much of the 2000 to 2017 period the average DOF ranged between 108 to 129 days, and averaged 118 days. Since 2017 onwards, the average number of DOF has increased towards the high 160s. It peaked at 172 days in 2023 and has eased to 164 days as at the end of 2024.
Matt Dalgleish is a director of Episode3.net and co-host of the Agwatchers podcast.
