New Season Lambs “Bogged Down” by Wet and Cold Winter

The closing weeks of winter in recent years has delivered large volumes of early new season lambs, with producers keen to get a jump on the inevitable spring surge.

While September typically marks the beginning of the “spring flush”, past years have seen notably large volumes of lambs hit the market in early August.

With the flock rebuild continuing, large lamb numbers are still expected in the final few months of 2022. However, the initial supply of new season lambs has been hampered in 2022 by widespread wet and cold weather, which has impacted lamb growth and performance. Seasonal conditions are not the only factor influencing the market, with production affected by COVID-19 and labour shortages, as well as the overall cautious buyer sentiment across the sheep and lamb market.

While the recent winter months have seen rainfall deciles across many regions in NSW and Queensland register at above average levels, selected regions have experienced a comparatively drier or “average” winter. This in effect has also enabled producers in these regions to get a start on selling new season lambs. Figure 1 illustrates where drier and average winter conditions have allowed producers to begin selling their winter lambs, with heat mapping depicting the NSW Central West and SW Victoria as leading the charge with new season lamb listings.

New season lamb listings on AuctionsPlus from the start of June through to mid-August have hit a five-year low, as depicted in Figure 2, sitting 56% below the corresponding period in 2021 and 35% below the five-year average. The large shift in listings has primarily been attributed to extreme weather conditions, with the absence of sunlight and frosts resulting in a high moisture feed base, with reduced nutritional value. Total new season lamb numbers on AuctionsPlus for the first two weeks of August totalled 27,472 head - 64% below the same period in 2021 and 32% below the five-year average.

Furthermore, ongoing difficulties with COVID-19 and labour shortages, coupled with disease concerns and reduced sentiment in the market has slowed the selling of old season lambs. In the first two weeks of August, old season lambs accounted for 38% of lambs listed in the AuctionsPlus commercial lamb sale - up from 27% in 2021. This points to the traditional spring break of new season lambs will be later than usual in 2022.

While winter conditions vary broadly across key sheep and lamb producing regions, Table 1 reveals AuctionsPlus’ largest lamb listing regions for the June-August period. Notable declines are evident across all regions compared to the corresponding period in 2021, highlighting the impact of the cold and wet months and cautious market sentiment, which has culminated in reduced lamb listings in the lead into spring selling season. It would be amiss to not recognise that we are comparing 2022 numbers to the significant record breaking and buoyant sheep and lamb market experienced across 2021.

Most notably, the NSW Central West and Riverina regions which recorded the largest lamb throughputs in 2021, at 52,558 and 29,769 head, respectively, have also registered considerable declines in listings for the same period in 2022. Lamb listings in the NSW Central West for June to August have declined by 42% year-on-year, while the Riverina fell by 53%. Western Queensland, which has experienced widespread above average rainfall, registered the largest annual decline in lamb throughput for the winter period on the platform - back 68% year-on-year.

Comparing Saleyard & AuctionsPlus lamb throughput:

Broadening the lense on lamb throughput to encompass National saleyard numbers (Source: MLA), as well as AuctionsPlus throughput, further highlighted the extent of the decline on last year. Figure 3 illustrates AuctionsPlus and National saleyard lamb throughput from June to mid-August, whereby an increasing deficit in listings has emerged compared to 2021. July 2022 lamb listings were 52% lower on AuctionsPlus and 15% lower in saleyards compared to 2021, while the first two weeks of August has registered further declines, with AuctionsPlus listings sitting 64% lower and saleyards 30% lower than 2021.

Capturing the past five years of national saleyard lamb throughput reveals current lamb yarding’s are sitting close to the five-year national average over the June-August period and are sitting between 15-30% lower than 2021 levels. As previously established, the delay in new season lambs hitting the market, largely caused by cold and wet conditions and a cautious market, is clear. Looking forward into Spring, it is anticipated that throughput will climb to a similar level to 2021, as warmer weather ignites lamb growth. However, it could be expected that the peak of lamb numbers will be at least 4-6 weeks later than usual, particularly among regions which have endured winter rainfall well above average.