As the days become longer and warmer, the welcomed spring season is almost upon us, and with it an influx of new season store lambs hitting the market. The coming weeks for new season lambs should prove to be very closely watched, given the strong position and outlook of the Australian lamb market, and sustained flock rebuilding over the past 18-months.
As of the end of July 2021, AuctionsPlus has already seen strong numbers of new season lambs offered. Record yearly throughput is forecast for the coming months - on track to rise above the highs of 2020.
In reviewing AuctionsPlus offerings back to 2016, new season lamb numbers for 2021 are currently at the highest point on record as at the end of July – as displayed in figure 1. So far this season, AuctionsPlus has seen just over 50,000 head offered - 3,000 head above the next highest season, in 2018.
Interestingly, 2020 registered the highest yearly throughput online for new season lambs. This result appeared to be a somewhat surprising statistic, given the low national flock numbers and the demand to restock throughout the period. However, the lure of the higher prices and desire for cash flow following the drought year may have been a larger influencing factor in 2020.
As seen below in table 1, NSW, typically the highest throughput state, had considerably lower listings for 2020, which reinforces the states shift towards restocking. Both Victoria and South Australia recorded an increase of 81% and 98% respectively on their 2020 throughput from the previous year - taking advantage of the strong market conditions and tapping into the unrelenting demand from NSW restockers. NSW 2020 throughput remained the second largest throughput for the year, despite the state listing a much-reduced offering compared to the previous three years (19, 18, 17), highlighting the importance producers placed on retaining numbers.
Sheep prices across the board have seen a steady increase since 2016, nudging higher each year with 2021 shaping up to be a consolidation year - with results so far showing certain categories tapering off, while others improve on an already record 2020. As of the end of July, prices have fallen slightly for shedding breed lambs and Merino wether lambs, while crossbred lambs and first cross ewe lambs have strengthened on last year’s prices.
Reviewing the sex makeup of historical listings since 2016, the marketing of mixed sex lines has constituted 71.3% of the total offering of new season lambs, followed by wethers at 14.4% and ewes at 14.3%. Interestingly, table 3 highlights the extent the rebuilding intentions had on producers in 2020 to sell new season ewes early - taking advantage of demand and high prices. A total of 189,116 ewe lambs were offered on AuctionsPlus in 2020, comprising 28% of the total new season lamb offering.
Reviewing heat mapping of both listings and purchasing, figure 2 shows the west to north east movement of stock for new season lambs in 2020. Victoria and South Australia listed 64% of new season lambs, with 56% of the purchased offering secured by NSW buyers.
With a 95% clearance rate achieved for the already 50,000 head offered in 2021, new season lambs are again in high demand. Prices are competing and edging out last years record returns, underpinned by the seasonal conditions and robust lamb demand outlook.
The upcoming AuctionsPlus Tuesday National Lamb sale already has over 11,000 head locked in for the catalogue, including these new season lamb lines:
300 first cross mixed sex White Suffolk/Merino store lambs from Tamworth. These lambs are Feb-Apr 21’ drop and 25.8kg liveweight.
330 first cross mixed sex White Suffolk/Pol Merino suckers from Bordertown, SA. These lambs are Apr – May 21’ drop and 25.1kg liveweight.
400 first cross mixed sex Poll Dorset/Pol Merino suckers from Hay, NSW. These lambs are May – Jun 21’ drop and 33.3kg liveweight.
140 first cross mixed sex Poll Dorset/Merino suckers from Carwarp, VIC. These lambs are Mar – Apr 21’ drop and are 26.1kg liveweight.
345 first cross mixed sex White Suffolk/Merino suckers from Loxton, SA. These lambs are Apr – May 21’ drop and are 30.8kg liveweight.
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