The first two weeks of May have seen near-record online listings and the highest saleyard yardings in seven years. Despite dry conditions across the south, it’s been the strength of northern buying that’s propped up the market—putting a floor under prices and helping it perform well above where it might have been otherwise.
The first fortnight of May has delivered near-record online listings and seven-year highs for saleyard yardings.
The underpinning factor to stronger market prices seen this year, in the face of widespread drought in the south, has been the intense northern buying demand.
This buying behaviour has put a floor in pricing and ensured the market has outperformed where it would have been, had the northern interest not been there.
In the past fortnight, AuctionsPlus weekly Friday cattle sale has offered close to 50,000 head, with the to weekly listings the third and fourth highest of all time for the platform. This has coincided with last week’s NRLS national weekly saleyard yardings, reaching their highest level since April 2018.
In a period of such heightened supply from both marketplaces, dry conditions in southern Australia forcing destocking and herd liquidation are coinciding with first round musters for Northern Australia and a general recovery of livestock movements post a disrupted April.
In the face of such large supply volumes (without accounting for direct to buyer transactions), movements of livestock and buying behaviour, underpinned by cattle regions north of Dubbo, is a major influencer into the market and price outcomes so far in 2025 on a broader level.
There is a strong argument to be made that without northern buying interest in the first five and a half months of this year, that the marketplace and cattle prices would be in a materially different position. The rains of late March in most of Queensland and northern NSW were season defining in many ways and as such, have delivered these major cattle producing regions excellent grass availability and trading conditions.
That seasonal excellence has coincided with a harsh, widespread drought for southern Australia, importantly, the northern buyers have shown willingness and demand for southern cattle, particularly due to price discounts to make good use of the seasonal conditions they have and to background and trade stock this year. Last week, young cattle in Victoria on AuctionsPlus Eastern States sale (280-330kg) were at a $102 and $143/head discount to NSW and Queensland young cattle prices respectively.
That buying demand from northern interest has put a floor in pricing in 2025 and I believe without that demand, prices and the market would look materially less positive than what they do.
The StoneX Australian Feeder Catte Swap is trading forward out to December 2025. As the spot market moved higher, forward bids and offers steadily lifted as well, not to the same extent as the spot price.
The reason being, reflected by users of the swap was in exact relation to the current surge in supply the market place is seeing. Feedback was that large volumes of cattle made available to market were to going to pressure pricing. Less certainty in the deferred contracts – four months or more ahead, is translating to genuine interest across both the buy and sell side. Users reference ability to forward plan with locked in prices as strong drivers of the swaps solid uptake so far in 2025 by all parts of the sector.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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