In what can only be described as widespread, season defining rains for most of Australia’s key cattle regions, these falls (other than those flooded) are going to deliver an exceptional 2025 for many producers and big numbers of cattle.
Recent rainfall has been season defining for most of Australia’s cattle regions.
Rain will drive improved grass growth which in turn lifts fertility and marking rates of the breeding herd, the herd will continue to grow in 2025.
Supply and demand fundamentals beyond the short working month of April point to downside price pressure for cattle markets.
Thoughts go out to those in western QLD dealing with this flooding, stock losses and infrastructure damage. The Ag industry is thinking of you.
In what can only be described as widespread, season defining rains for most of Australia’s key cattle regions, these falls (other than those flooded) are going to deliver an exceptional 2025 for many producers and big numbers of cattle.
For the northern areas, these rains will deliver excellent end of season grass growth and begin to develop winter herbage as well. With a good body of feed, I believe we’ll see strong fertility and marking rates for the northern breeding herd in 2025, underpinned by the availability of good nutrition (for most areas). This will translate to the national herd growing this year, as pointed out in January in this column.
For southern QLD and northern NSW, the rains have ensured an oats crop can either be planted or can get out of the ground. These falls are season defining for these areas also, ensuring that the winter feed gap can be filled and stock can be traded through winter. Expect to see good volumes of both grassfed cattle and feeders turned off these areas after winter grazing in H2 2025.
Disruptions of the rain with cattle accessibility and transport to remain hindered for some time, Pic: AgriShots
Unsurprisingly, markets have found some renewed zest in trading this week, particularly the yards. How much this flows into feeder and processor grids is yet to be determined but with feedlots still well booked into the end of April/early May, many feedlots continue to operate hand to mouth on numbers they need to fill space. Offers from feedlots will rise where needed to fill space and secure stock to replace other numbers which aren’t accessible.
Expect the disruptions of the rain with cattle accessibility and transport to remain hindered for some time as the industry wades into a short working month of April and disruptions with public holidays.
Looking beyond the short term upside the market will now experience, in terms of higher prices, the fundamentals of supply and demand point to downside pricing pressure once these short weeks have passed. Particularly as the industry moves into May where some clear sailing emerges post shortened working weeks of April and Labour day in QLD.
The StoneX Cattle Swap despite the recent rains and disruptions of all kinds across the supply chain continues to see its forward bids and offers remain firm beyond April. Users of the swap point to these cattle held back recently and now into April across large areas simply being delayed in delivery.
Cautiousness from buyers of the swaps is prominent from a trading end, particularly with potential tariffs imposed affecting the beef export supply chain and the uncertainty around how this will affect meat prices and forward sales negotiations.
Trade has thinned as the industry takes stock of its situation both locally and globally.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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