AuctionsPlus commercial sheep and lamb listings for the final quarter of 2022 (October-December) reached a total of 1,172,366 head – an 81% rise from the third quarter and a 22% reduction from the corresponding quarter in 2021. A wet and cold winter saw the traditional spring flush of lamb’s flow onto the market 6-8 weeks later than normal, with high volumes offered online throughout December.
In ranking the buying and selling regions by the total number of sheep and lambs transacted through AuctionsPlus on a quarterly basis, Southwest Victoria reclaimed the top throughput region from the NSW Central West, with a total of 169,747 head listed - a 332% increase from the previous quarter (Table 1). Taking out second and third positions behind Southwest Victoria were the NSW Riverina (147,483 head) and Central Western NSW (134,956) which registered a 36% and 4% rise on the previous quarter, respectively. While eight of the top ten regions recorded a decline in throughput from the corresponding quarter in 2021, several regions registered significant rises in listings compared to the previous quarter, as new season lamb numbers drove up throughput volume. Lower Southeast SA registered a 663% rise from the previous quarter, with the region securing fourth spot overall - at 117,789 head.
Taking a closer look into Southwest Victoria, the region accounted for 14.5% of total sheep and lamb throughput on AuctionsPlus for the quarter. The region was also the third largest purchaser, securing a total of 110,703 head - sitting behind the NSW Central West (140,559 head) and NSW Riverina (139,815 head). Lamb purchases for the region accounted for 61% of total sheep and lamb purchases, while unjoined ewe numbers accounted for 34%. Total clearance rates for the region reached 61%, 9% higher than the previous quarter.
The NSW Riverina retained its position as the second largest listing region from the previous quarter. Throughput for the region sat 1% higher than the corresponding quarter in 2021, yet 13% behind 2020 numbers. Compared to the previous quarter in 2022, the Riverina recorded a 36% lift in total sheep and lamb listings. On the purchasing side, the region secured a total of 139,815 head across the quarter, securing second place. Purchases rose by 116% from the previous quarter, despite the corresponding periods in 2021 and 2020 sitting 26% and 27% lower, respectively.
Table 1: AuctionsPlus top 10 listing regions for Q4 2022
Across the final quarter of 2022, lamb listings increased by 112% from the previous quarter, to total 715,415 head – 61% of total sheep and lamb throughput. It is expected that this seasons’ late flow of lambs onto the market will be carried across well into the first quarter of 2023, influenced by the widespread wet conditions in spring and a colder than average winter.
The Southern regions dominated lamb listings across the final quarter of 2022, with Southwest Victoria, Riverina NSW and Lower Southeast SA taking out the top three lamb listing regions (Table 2). Behind the NSW Central West, Kangaroo Island (SA) claimed the fifth highest listing region for the quarter, with the 54,133 head of lambs listed comprising of 97% of the region’s total sheep and lamb throughput. On the purchasing side, the Riverina NSW claimed top position for lamb purchases with the 84,531 head - accounting for 70% of total purchases for the region across the quarter.
Table 2: Top AuctionsPlus Lamb listing and purchasing regions for Q4 2022.
Looking to purchasing trends for the quarter, post-sale negotiations played an increasingly vital role in securing a transaction following the immediate closure of commercial auctions. As seen in Figure 1, a total of 66% of sheep and lamb listings were sold during the allotted auction time, while 28% of total sales were made following the auction. Other features, including the “Buy Now” and “meet reserve” accounted for 2% and 4% of total sales for the quarter, respectively.
Figure 1: State proportions of AuctionsPlus sheep and lamb listings and purchases for Q4 2022.
Top purchasing regions for the quarter followed a similar trend to the top listing regions. The NSW Central West continued to hold top position for the quarter, with the region securing the most sheep and lambs across all quarters of 2022. Securing a total of 140,559 head of sheep and lambs, total purchasing volume for the Central West increased by 124% from the previous quarter yet finished 45% below the corresponding quarter in 2021 (Table 3). Purchases for the NSW Central West consisted mainly of new season lambs, accounting for 58% of all purchases, while unjoined ewes accounted for 30%.
A notable trend in Table 3 below highlights the reduced purchasing volume across all of the top ten purchasing regions compared to the corresponding quarters in 2021 and 2020. Despite significant rises in purchases from the previous quarter, the delay of lambs onto the market, coupled with disruptions from weather and cautious sentiment from buyers contributed to a significant reduction in overall purchases for the quarter.
Table 3: AuctionsPlus top 10 purchasing regions for Q4 2022.
As highlighted in Figure 2, Clearance rates across the quarter slipped back by 6% from the previous quarter, to average 61%. Clearance rates were 13% below the 2017-2022 average of 74%, and 15% below the average clearance in the corresponding quarter in 2021. Several factors contributed to “cautious buying” across the quarter, including ongoing floods and rainfall across much of the Eastern States, as well as rising interest rates and the clear signs of the market softening back to pre-2020 levels.
Figure 2: AuctionsPlus quarterly clearance rates 2017-Q4 2022.
Looking to state based throughput, NSW regions accounted for 44% of listings for the quarter, while South Australia accounted for 25%, followed by Victoria with 24% (Figure 3). On the purchasing side, NSW secured 50% of total sheep and lambs sold online, while Victoria and South Australia accounted for 29% and 17% of purchases, respectively.
Figure 3: The proportion of state-based sheep and lamb transactions on AuctionsPlus for listings and purchases across Q4 2022.
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