United Arab Emirates posts huge increase in trade volumes of lamb and mutton

Lamb and mutton exports maintained historic highs in June. Lamb exports have again achieved the third highest monthly export volumes since 1994 at 28,646 tonnes, edging ahead of May by only 138 tonnes. Mutton exports were 83% higher than the five-year average for June, at 17,575 tonnes swt.

Key Points:

• China remains the top destination for Australian lamb exports for the fourth month

• Exports to the UAE are 128% higher than last year for mutton and 101% up for lamb

• High production and low prices are the key drivers behind strong export volumes

Lamb slaughter numbers remain at elevated levels, with 428,762 head processed in the week ending July 9. This is well above the seasonal lull we normally experience at this time of year, sitting 14% higher than the same week last year. Lower domestic prices are making Australian exports relatively more competitive against global competitors and has pushed year-to-date exports 5% above the five-year average for the same period.

Figure 1: Monthly lamb exports 2021 – June 2023. Source: DAFF

Exports to China (6,394t) fell back 11% in June, while the US (5,814t) posted a 10% gain. Papua New Guinea (1,978t) also lifted by 11%, while volumes to the UAE (2,188t) increased 17%, bringing year-to-date exports 48% higher than the previous year and the largest uplift of the top four markets.

Figure 2: Monthly lamb exports by destination 2021 – June 2023. Source: DAFF

Mutton exports slipped back 10% from May, but remain well above the five-year average with year-to-date volumes currently 42% higher. Mutton exports are expected to be lower over winter due to the historical seasonality of supply. High slaughter numbers, however, will keep volumes elevated over and above recent years.

Figure 3: Monthly mutton exports 2021 – June 2023. Source: DAFF

China is well established as Australia’s largest destination for mutton exports and year-to-date volumes are 95% higher than the five-year average. The UAE doesn’t quite make it into the top four export destination for mutton, however, it may break through soon. June export volumes to the UAE were 128% higher than last year, and year-to-date volumes are sitting at 39% higher than the five-year average, second only to China.

Figure 4: Monthly mutton exports by destination 2021 – June 2023. Source: DAFF

Australia is expected to continue exporting significant volumes of lamb and mutton, as increased supply and lower prices improves the competitiveness of Australian product in the global market. Export volumes of lamb and mutton to the US have remained relatively subdued, however, there are positive signs that the flow of trade is improving.