Tom's Market Muster: Where is the EYCI one year on from lowest point?

Today marks one year since the MLA Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) fell to its lowest point when the cattle market collapsed last year.

On January 10, 2023, the indicator opened at 799c, and proceeded to free fall week on week to a low of 349.14c on October 18, 2023, (a loss of 56% of its value).

The EYCI closed off on Thursday this week at 623c.

Opportunity in trade cattle

While the cattle market has gained significant ground across 2024, and large parts of Central NSW through to Northern Queensland have seen good seasons heading into Spring, there appears to be a hesitancy to trade cattle.

Comparing the gap heavy and restocker steer indicators from MLA shows the difference between buying a restocker animal, adding weight and selling for a profit.

Currently the gap across the month of October is 16c, a fall from 25c gap in September.

This tells me that the opportunity to buy a trade steer or heifer, should feed allow, is ripe.

Australian Lamb consumption highest since 2016

Domestic lamb consumption appears to be on the rise in Australia.

Using lamb meat production and export figures, a rough gauge on the domestic market can be followed.

Mar-2024 Quarter looks to be the largest on record with 80m tonnes of lamb meat consumer by the Australian market.

This was preceded by 70m and 71m in the June-2023 and Sept-2023 quarters. The last time these figures were over 71m for domestic consumption was in 2016.

Further to the above, a key driver of meat is the price point for consumers - the MLA Retail lamb indicator fell to 1,611c/kg in March-2024, the lowest since September 2018.

No doubt this drop was impacted by low lamb farm gate prices in 2023, the retail lamb indicator from Sept-2023 to March-2024 fell 13%. Since then it has risen to 1,728c for the June-2024 quarter.

Wool holds its ground for now

The rise in the wool market from the Chinese stimulus package from last week looks to have run its course for now. The AWEX EMI fell 1c, to close off at 1,138c/kg.

While this is a minimal movement compared to last week, the 8% pass-in rate alludes to weaker demand.

Reports from the industry suggest, the market hasn't found a base yet and significant movements either positively or negatively could still come.

Data curtsey of MLA, AWEX, Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Tom Rookyard is the General Manager at Ottley Livestock Finance.