A low off the NSW coast is close enough to shore to bring heavy rain and strong winds to those just to its southwest on Friday, gradually easing as it drifts out to sea on the weekend. Meanwhile, our first cyclone close to Australia may develop off the Pilbara coast.
Low pressure is the big driver of our weather over the next few days.
There are two lows of concern - one off the NSW coast, and another off the Pilbara coast in WA.
The first still has a lot of rain to drop as I write this on Friday morning. A low off the east coast drags strong winds and heavy rain into areas just southwest of the centre of the low (winds travel clockwise around them, so it's those to the south that are in the firing line). The low was located just northeast of Coffs Harbour at lunchtime on Friday.
This is close enough to bring heavy rain, damaging winds (gusting over 90km/h) and both hazardous and dangerous surf - and make the air cold, wet and windy enough for a sheep graziers warning.
Warning areas in NSW on Friday
Jumping over to the west and we may have our first cyclone close to Australia for the season.
Just a weak area of low pressure on Friday, but it’s highly likely to become organised and strengthen on the weekend, forming a cyclone off the Pilbara coast on Sunday.
On this side of the country the threat of severe weather occurs to the northeast of the low when it is offshore.
If you’d like to see the range of paths this potential cyclone may take (with one model suggesting it travels close to Port Hedland, Karratha, Onlow and Exmouth) please see my full video update:
As always stay up to date with warnings as they are issued over the weekend.
Potential cyclone off the Pilbara coast on Sunday
Finally today, the long range outlook for February through to April has been issued by BoM.
We have plenty of moisture available thanks to significantly warmer than average waters around much of Australia, but the weather pattern (where the lows and highs move) will be the deciding factor in which parts of the country see above average rain.
There is a high chance that moisture will be fed in from the east coast, running into troughs and producing showers and thunderstorms. But the trough also acts as a stop sign and doesn’t let that moisture travel any further west (without help from moisture from the Indian Ocean). The outlook shows that while the moisture and rain could spread all through Queensland and NSW, it may struggle to make it into SA, western Victoria and southwest Tasmania.
Potential for above average rain in February through to April 2025.
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