A rather large and strong high pressure system has taken over our weather pattern, and it should be in charge of our weather for the next week.
You may think high pressure creates dry conditions, and yes this is correct in some settings, but not always.
Australia is a big island and high pressure always brings onshore winds somewhere. In the current set-up, those onshore winds are in Queensland, creating showers about the coast.
The current high also produces a north-westerly airflow over south-east Australia, creating warmer than average weather.
Cold fronts are shifted southwards when the high is so strong and so stationary, so it’s an extended run of generally dry weather in the south-east too.
This pattern does let cold fronts through in a few spots: southwest WA and western Tasmania.
Above: Wednesday morning weather map showing high pressure dominating the mainland.
Over the next week, there should be only a few tweaks to the current pattern.
The cold front you can see south-west of WA should pass through the south-west early on Thursday, then it's no match for the high and just slides across the south-east on Friday.
However, that front has a lot of upper atmosphere energy that should barrel across the interior of the country, heading directly for QLD and NSW.
Think of upper atmosphere energy like a puppet - it controls what happens on the ground.
That energy should run straight into those onshore winds and create rain - mainly on the east coast, with lighter falls inland.
This is as the high continues to block things from affecting the south-east and another front moves up and strikes the south-west.
Above: Potential rainfall from Wednesday 12th to Wednesday 19th July.
In summary:
Rain affects the QLD and northern NSW coast for much of the time in the next week
Light rain affects inland parts of QLD and NSW over the weekend and early next week
The south-east remains warmer than average and generally dry - just light rain in the south on Fri/Sat
Western TAS continues to be hit by cold fronts, with 50 to 100 mm in the next week, but there is much less in eastern TAS (on the dry side of the ranges)
The south-west sees stronger fronts on Thurs and again early next week
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