A big northwest cloudband is delivering widespread out of season rain, and projections show that the rain should spread eastwards over the next week. We’ve seen large falls already, and there’s still significant rain over the NT, QLD and NSW to come.
Above: Potential rainfall from Wednesday 28th June to Wednesday 5th July.
The satellite shows tropical moisture from Indonesia and PNG being pushed into far northwestern AUS, and low pressure turning that into a long northwest cloudband and band of rain.
You can thank weather systems from the Southern Ocean that have become disconnected from the fast westerlies south of the country for a) spreading cold air well north of where it usually sits, and b) providing the energy to turn a feed of tropical moisture into rain.
Above: Wednesday's satellite image shows a large northwest cloudband.
This is a very slow moving, stagnant weather pattern. It should still be going later in the week, across the weekend and into early next week too.
The change we’ll most notice is when and where the rain falls.
There’s a break on Thursday… but we’re not done. That’s just the end of round one.
Round two begins on Friday over the NT. The rain continues over the NT on Saturday and Sunday, and spreads into western QLD too.
Then next week the rain may spread down through the eastern states in round three.
Above: potential rainfall from Thursday 29th June to Wednesday 5th July.
In a year with talk of El Nino and positive IOD that are supposed to suppress rainfall that has originated from the tropics, why are we seeing this rain now?
Both these phenomena haven’t begun yet, and as long as we have warmer than average water off northern AUS, then whenever a tropical pulse passes by and interacts with low pressure, it can produce big rain.
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