Lamb and Mutton exports slip in line with seasonality but remain historically high

Lamb and mutton exports remain at elevated levels in July despite an easing from June to July. Lamb exports totalled 27,839t which is down 3% from June but up 11% from July last year. Mutton exports fell 27% from June but remain well above the five-year average, with year-to-date volumes currently 53% higher.

Key Points:

• US has taken back the top spot for lamb exports on the back of weaker exports to China

• Mutton exports are expected to increase each month going into Spring

• High production and low prices remain the key drivers behind strong export volumes

Lamb slaughter numbers are remaining at elevated levels with 444,479 head processed in the week ending 4 August. This is 17% higher than the same week last year. Lower domestic prices are making Australian exports relatively more competitive against global competitors and has pushed year-to-date exports 8% above the five-year average for the same period.

Figure 1: Monthly lamb exports 2021 – July 2023. Source DAFF

Exports to China (5,590t) fell back 13% in July while the US (6,066t) posted a 4% gain. Papua New Guinea (2,172t) also lifted by 10%, while volumes to the UAE (1,668t) slipped 24%, bringing year-to-date exports 50% higher than the previous year and the largest uplift of the top four markets.

Figure 2: Monthly lamb exports by destination 2021 – July 2023. Source DAFF

Expectations for mutton exports to be lower over winter due to the historical seasonality of supply have been realized. High slaughter numbers, however, will keep volumes elevated over and above recent years.

Figure 3: Monthly mutton exports 2021 – July 2023. Source DAFF

China is well established as Australia’s largest destination for mutton exports and year-to-date volumes are 98% higher than the five-year average despite slipping 35% in July to 5,360t. Malaysia is the second highest export destination for mutton with export volumes up 31% compared to last year, while exports to Saudi Arabia are up 115% on this time last year.

Figure 4: Monthly mutton exports by destination 2021 – July 2023. Source DAFF

Australia is expected to continue exporting significant volumes of lamb and mutton as increased supply and lower prices improves the competitiveness of Australian product in the global market. Export volumes of lamb and mutton to the US have remained relatively subdued, however, there are positive signs that the flow of trade is improving.