Strong start to 2025 weaner sales, yet familiar patterns emerge

• Feed lotters and northern buyers are dominating the weaner sales, with a distinct lack of local southern interest this year.

• In a case of rinse and repeat of 2024, heifer prices continue to operate at a strong discount to steers.

• The StoneX Cattle swap is trading in a tight band of 5-10c/kg across the early months of 2025.

The autumn calves of 2024 are being sold across southern Australia this week, with large numbers of well-bred cattle available to an array of buyers chasing bigger lines for trading, feedlotting and breeding purposes in 2025.

In the first week of sales this week at NVLX Wodonga, Wangaratta and other locations, there’s been 3 key themes of note.

1. Lot feeders & northern buyers are driving the market this year.

2. Heifers continue to operate at a significant price discount to steers in c/kg lwt terms.

3. Clear difference between buying groups based on weight

Lot feeders & northern buyers driving the market

In different circumstances to previous years of the weaner sales where buyer demand has been delicately balanced between buyer type and their location. The 2025 sales this week have clearly shown that lot feeders and northern NSW / southern QLD producers are dominating buying and will continue to do so if the sums work.

Feedlots are driving the market, across both steers and heifers and have been selective in weight ranges. The heavier lines and cattle continue to be in strong demand and feedlots have been securing large numbers of these.

Comparing say the 2021 and 2022 sales where producers were the dominant force at the rail, the 2025 sales will be remembered for feedlots and their influence on the market. This is further evidence of where the cattle cycle has moved to with a larger herd and subsequently how that shifts the demand equilibrium in lot feeders favour.

In early November in this column I spoke of the interest I expected to see from northern producers, following an exceptional spring and solid early storms to start 2025. This dynamic has played out with northern buyers looking for lighter cattle (less than 330kg) to do a trade on this year. Whilst there is a distinct lack of cattle remaining local or in the south due to the difficult 2024 season many producers had.

Heifer discounts to steers continue in 2025

A major theme of 2024 was the strong discount heifer prices operated at compared to steers throughout the year. This trend has picked up where it left off at the weaner sales, with a clear dislocation between steer and heifer prices. Heifers have operated anywhere from a 40c to $1.10/kg lwt discount to steers in the sales this week.

There are two reasons for this, #1 is the lack of demand from producers for heifers to buy as future breeders due to the numbers of breeders on farm and #2 larger numbers of heifers offered for sale placing downward pressure on demand.

There may be implications for breeder numbers in the future in southern herds due to higher numbers of heifers bought by feedlots at these sales this year. This is a matter that demands attention as 2025 plays out.

Buying groups differ on weight

The northern producers buying are targeting lighter cattle, less than 330kg at these sales for an extended trade in 2025, either growing stock out to feeder entry or grassfed kill weights. Producers are chasing the lighter stock in store condition (of which there is plentiful supply) and are able to secure large drafts to trade this year.

Whereas lot feeder demand is squarely centred around the heavier cattle, most stock over 330kg are going to lot feeders, both heifers and steers. Prices are staying strong for any cattle over 400kg with feedlots dominating this buying group.

Swaps update

The StoneX Cattle Swap is trading in a thin band of 5-10c/kg lwt for the first 4 months of 2025. The market has opened stronger than where it ended 2024 with bids having to rise to meet offers, mirroring where the spot market has moved.

Comments from users of the swap are still indicating potential downside to the market as Q1 ends due to higher supplies of cattle coming forwards which were held back in late 2024.

Swaps users are focussed on risk management and removing their exposure to unfavourable price movements, this is something the broader beef industry should consider and adopt moving forwards.

Table 1. StoneX Cattle swap monthly forward markets - dated 09.01.2025

Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.

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