The latest projections for the Australian cattle industry were released by Meat & Livestock Australia this week, with throughput this year set to stay historically high as we continue through the destocking phase. They expect we will see the herd start to decline, albeit only very marginally in 2025, and continue to do so out to 2027.
Slaughter, particularly the Female Slaughter Rate (FSR), is most often used to gauge current producer intention, and with the FSR averaging well above the 47% destocking marker last year, this supports the projected herd trajectory for the year. Also reported and forecast by the MLA is average carcase weight of processed cattle, which can also offer interesting insight.
As we can see from our first chart, average carcase weights have generally been on the rise over the past two decades, and this is what has allowed us to set new production and export records in 2024, despite slaughter not being at all-time highs. The same is expected to happen again this year.
Amongst other things, improved cattle genetics and production systems have seen the average carcase weight rise 15% since 2000, from 261kg to 309kg in 2024, peaking at 319kg in 2022.
The increase in the number of cattle being grainfed in Australia has also contributed significantly to this, as has the adaptation of more Bos taurus breeds in the north.
Year-to-year carcase weights, however, tend to follow the same trajectory as herd and slaughter numbers, with more females being turned-off during destocking periods bringing down the average across the board. This cycle is no different, with carcase weights having fallen 2% year-on-year in 2024, and expected to drop another 1% this year.
The first chart shows pretty clearly when destocking is prompted by dry seasonal conditions compared to when it is the general progression of the herd. We can see sharp declines in carcase weights in the early 2000s drought, as well as around 2019, whereas it was a softer dip during the record slaughter years of 2014-15 and the most recent years, which was more prompted by the production cycle.
The forecast is for average carcase weights to begin rising again after this year, and to be back at 2022 levels (3% higher than last year) by 2027. This will be a 4% increase from what it is expected to be this year.
Slaughter, on the other hand, is predicted to be 4% lower from 2025 to 2027. Given that slaughter rose 18% from 2023 to 2024, and carcase weights only fell 2%, this is a fairly significant weight increase.
This is an indication that the expectation is for finishing carcase weights to continue their overall general increase, and that despite herd numbers forecast to be lower, the move into building cattle numbers back up will come in 2027 with less females contributing to average slaughter weights.
Jamie-Lee Oldfield is a seasoned agri-media, communications professional and livestock market analyst who lives and works on a family-owned stud and commercial beef and sheep operation in Coolac, NSW.
