Frosts intensify and spring heat looms as El Nino signals build

Another quiet week of weather is on the way. The coverage and strength of the frontal weather is expected to be more of a feature for those exposed to the west to northwest wind bearing.

This means that the coverage of rainfall restricted to the far southern states, but also allowing temperatures over the interior of the NT and SA to become excessive, which could bring Spring heat to inland Queensland northern NSW well ahead of schedule.

This is another parameter to watch which makes up the greatest hits of El Nino that start to appear as we move into August and a bigger feature for September and October.

Noticed the frosts of late as well? They are also increasing in scale and intensity and not just over the east and southeast of the country but also about southern WA with frosts set to return to the zones more frequently under lingering high pressure.

The rainfall rates are forecast to be below average for most of the continent even with the fronts with an acute lack of moisture persisting, the odd cloud band may form where temperatures clash but forcing for higher rainfall looks to be limited and should not be expected as the overall outcome during the weeks ahead.

The MJO is expected to amplify again well north of Australia and limited moisture is expected to be drawn from the region, in comparison to what we saw in June which gave us more active wet weather and moisture laden humid weather.

That weather is now off the table for the next few months and the build and wet season up north, appears to be delayed and sluggish for season 2026-27.