The 2023-24 El Nino in the Pacific came to an end this week as the ocean slowly undergoes a big shift, and it will take some time to enter the next phase: La Nina.
Parts of Victoria and Tasmania received 50 to 100 mm this week, and the deluge is spreading to central and eastern NSW and into southern QLD. Is it the autumn break?
Jane Bunn says the Pacific is looking good, most likely to transition into sending moisture our way. However, the Indian Ocean is a mixed bag, limiting our moisture in autumn and winter, then potentially shifting gears in spring.
Stay ahead of the weather with Jane's Weather insights on potential heavy rain in Queensland with possible spreading to NSW. Get the latest forecasts and updates on rainfall patterns and climate drivers.
According to every one of the different weather models, rain is unlikely in the east next week.
But an alternative forecast from the BOM tells a very different story. What gives?
The trough responsible for damaging storms is now likely to stall over a large part of the east. Expect day after day of thunderstorms brewing around the trough line.
Seasonal forecasts — like suggestions a La Niña is on the way — are not designed for major business decisions. But it is good to be aware of what is driving weather.
The frequency and intensity of rainfall events and flooding are increasing. That means more and faster developing droughts that can cause crop failure and destructive wildfires within weeks or months.
