The Autumn Break may spread rain across parts of the southeast this ANZAC day long weekend, as the next low slowly moves through.
Some very dry parts are set to receive a good 25 to 50 mm soaking - mainly in a line from southwestern NSW through to Melbourne, and another area that crosses through central NSW.
Other also very dry parts are more likely to receive less than 10mm in another system that fails to deliver. It has moved too far east for South Australia before it slows down and delivers the steady rain, and there is the potential for a 'hole' to form over northeast Victoria and the eastern Riverina as the low moves over that spot, placing it in the 'dead zone' or 'cone of silence'... as the rain falls all around.
Here is the latest guidance as of midday on Thursday - with most of the rain passing through on Friday and Saturday:
Potential rainfall over the next week
The NSW coast to the ranges, and around the corner into East Gippsland, picks up yet another soaking over the next week, with falls right on the coastal fringe likely to exceed 50 to 75 mm.
If this is in fact the Autumn Break, you would expect that to be the flick of the switch - now we enter a period of regular rainfall as the weather systems return.
That may not be the case, for the second year in a row for the southeast.
The outlook for May isn't likely to deliver much, according to BoM's seasonal modelling:
Potential rainfall in May 2025
But things may pick up as we go through winter, especially for South Australia, southwest NSW and northwest Victoria:
This modelling from BoM is showing that juicy northwest cloudbands become more likely later in the season, as the Indian Ocean starts to encourage bigger rainfalls to spread across Australia:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may head towards negative during winter
There is no video this week, but I will resume these next Friday.
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