Rain on the way, but where it falls is the question

The weather pattern is rather complex for eastern Australia with a developing upper level trough and cold pool, with broadscale easterly winds feeding moisture into this feature, leading to higher rainfall chances developing over a large region. But the open question will remain through the weekend, where does the best of the wet weather fall? It's bonus rainfall in a developing drought year.

Frontal weather is expected to spread through the westerly wind belt for WA, this leading to the best chances of rainfall from mid next week. The frontal intensity and extension of the rainfall to inland ag regions of WA will be dependent on the evolution of the upper air pattern generating the wet weather spread over eastern Australia.

So there will be a few features to watch generating rainfall chances, again, critical moisture for many heading into what is touted as a tough second half to the year.

Speaking of the remainder of the year, and my latest forecasts still suggest a tricky Winter and Spring period coming up where the rainfall frequency will diminish nationally, starting through Queensland and NSW and then spreading to the southern states more broadly in the Spring.

While El Niño is forecast to be at near record levels, it does not always mean record impacts. Some of the strongest droughts have been as a result of a combination of climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, the sea surface temperatures around Australia in combination with the ENSO phase.

A lot of careful analysis is needed in forecasting the impacts for each district across the country moving into the second half of the year.

In the meantime, those looking at rainfall, a reasonable chance this week ahead for many areas, choosing the winners and loser, a little harder as the pattern remains complex.

Karl Lijnders is the founder of Weather Matters, which provides short, medium and longer-range weather forecasts, updated daily, with a focus on Australian ag and what the weather and climate means to you.

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