We're likely at peak soil moisture across continent

The weather pattern is generally stable and with more high pressure on the horizon, this is indicative of the El Niño that is starting to influence the weather.

The nature of the weather pattern is one that supports more blocking high and low pressure across Southern Australia. This is leading to more volatility in the temperature forecast from day to day vs where we were last week. The placement of low pressure east of the country is likely to cause a persistent period of much colder weather nationally, away from WA.

But if there is a blocking ridge sitting over the southeast of the country, the low pressure system is further toward NZ, this opens the door for much warmer weather for the country.

It does look like the run of below average rainfall continues to show up.

The year feels like it is heading in the right direction in the ag sector with excellent soil moisture, the recent weeks of regular rainfall, many of you are pigs in mud at the moment.

But I am sure you have seen a significant drop off in rainfall throughout the past few weeks and that continues in the modelling which means, we are likely at the peak of the soil moisture and general wetness across the continent as a whole.

This comes as no surprise as we are due for the drier/drought setting and overdue for an El Niño that does bring about the greatest hits from drought, to fire, to high temperatures etc.

We as a community have had ample warning, ample time to prepare, now we have to sit it out and ride it out together.

More next week.