One day to go: Red meat industry awaits Trump’s tariff move

The wait for clarity of proposed tariffs on Australian red meat exported to the US is almost over, with US President Donald Trump slated to announce details early on Thursday, Australian time.

It's been almost a month since President Trump first flagged tariffs on external agricultural products with a post on Truth Social on March 4.

The latest speculation, as per the Washington Post is that White House aides have drafted plans for 20% tariffs on most goods imported to the US.

A White House aide has said any report ahead of tomorrow's event is "mere speculation", but on Tuesday confirmed that reciprocal tariffs that President Trump will announce will go into effect immediately.

Australia's peak red meat representatives have responded by calling for calm.

Red Meat Advisory Council Chair, John McKillop, said industry has well established frameworks for presenting a unified approach on behalf of the whole supply chain.

“We would ask that all stakeholders remain calm and not jump at shadows but wait until announcements have been made," he said.

Australian Meat Industry Council Chief Executive Officer, Tim Ryan, said while the US is a significant and highly valued trading partner for Australian meat, demand for Australian product remains strong both within the US and globally.

“Producers, processors and exporters should be comforted by the fact that Australian meat is world-renowned and widely sought after in the US and elsewhere. Australia is a valued, long-standing, reliable supplier to global customers," Mr Ryan said.

"Australian meat, particularly lean trim, is a significant input into US burger production and is a reliable, safe protein for US consumers. Seasonal conditions, topography and climate vary between our two countries, underpinning differences in meat production systems and enabling Australia to complement seasonal and cyclical gaps in US supply.

“With strong demand in the US and globally for Australian meat, the American people will be the ones to wear the cost of any tariffs applied to our exports.”

APlus News spoke with Cattle Australia Chief Executive Chris Parker ahead of his visit to the US this week, including talks with US farm lobby groups.

Cattle Australia Chair, Garry Edwards, said Australian beef exports play a crucial role in complementing American shortfalls in both high-quality cuts and hamburger beef.

“Australia is the United States’ preferred supplier of high-quality grass-fed steaks and their demand for this product is expected to continue, given seasonal constraints of US supply,” Mr Edwards said.

“And without Australian lean beef blended to local fatty trim, the US would need to use higher value cuts in their burgers and miss out on valuable export opportunities.

“It is important that the mutually beneficial role of each country’s supply chain is recognised in these ongoing discussions.”

Sheep Producers Australia CEO, Bonnie Skinner, said high quality Australian lamb is valued in global markets.

“Lamb is synonymous with Australia - and for good reason. Our producers are the backbone of a supply chain which delivers high quality sheep meat products throughout the world, including to the US," Ms Skinner said.

What the politicians have said

Meanwhile, on the election trail, Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton are talking up their credentials for dealing with President Trump.

Tariffs on pharmaceuticals and agricultural sector imports are expected, as well as measures responding to Australia's news bargaining code which forces social media companies to pay media outlets for content on their platforms.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese did not rule out Australia taking the US to the World Trade Organisation if the nation was hit with more tariffs.

"What I can say is that we are prepared for all possibilities going forward," he told reporters on Wednesday.

"Tariffs are an act of economic self-harm on those who impose it. It increases costs for buyers in the US."

Australia's exports to the US represented less than 5% of its global goods exports, Mr Albanese added.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said while there was bipartisanship on not compromising on pharmaceuticals or biosecurity arrangements in exchange for exemptions, he would be more assertive with Mr Trump.

"If I needed to have a fight with Donald Trump or any other world leader to advance our nation's interests, I'd do it in a heartbeat, and I'll put the Americans on notice," he told Sky News.

"I'm not going to allow the president of the United States or the prime minister of the United Kingdom or anyone else to walk over me or to walk over our country.

"At the moment they see a prime minister who is weak and flapping in the breeze."

Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said Australian officials were still pressing the case to US representatives for an exemption to any future tariffs.

"We've been working through our established channels to explain to the US the Australian government's position and to respond to issues that they raise with us," she told reporters in Canberra.

"We've been very clear with them what we stand for and the fact that we serve the Australian people."

Foreign Minister Penny Wong has all but conceded Australia is unlikely to avoid being hit.

"We'll keep working hard for the best outcome, but I think all of us are realistic," she told ABC Radio on Wednesday.

Economist weighs in

Michael Whitehead, Executive Director of Food, Beverage and Agribusiness Insights at ANZ, said tariff uncertainty was already affecting confidence among Australian processors and producers.

“Australia remains the largest supplier of beef to the US, exporting nearly 395,000 tonnes in 2024, primarily for burger production and further processing," Mr Whitehead said.

“If the US imposes tariffs of 8% or more, Australian beef could become significantly less competitive – impacting export volumes, processor margins, and domestic cattle prices,” he said.

Beyond the threat of tariffs, US beef industry groups are expected to push for greater access to the Australian market – a move that the Australian industry has consistently opposed due to biosecurity concerns.

“While Australia prohibits fresh US beef imports, the US has a long history of using tariff threats as leverage in trade negotiations," Mr Whitehead said.

“If this issue gains traction, it could become a major point of contention for Australian producers and policymakers,” he said.

If US demand for Australian beef declines, cattle prices – particularly for categories supplying lean manufacturing beef – could come under pressure.

"A tariff announcement could potentially see the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) fall by 20 to 40 cents per kilogram," he said.

“Processors, particularly in Queensland and NSW, may face tighter margins and operational recalibrations.

“Regional employment, processing efficiency, and cold chain logistics could also be affected."

If US tariffs reduce Australian exports, alternative markets such as Japan, South Korea, and China could offer opportunities.

“Japan already sources 39% of its beef imports from Australia, South Korea 45%, and China 17%. However, competitors like Brazil, New Zealand, and Argentina are also well positioned to capitalise on any disruption in US trade flows.

“The Australian beef sector has shown resilience before, but with US trade policy evolving, maintaining diversified markets, agile supply chains, and strong biosecurity protections will be essential,” Mr Whitehead said.