Will he or won't he? Trump address sheds new light on beef and lamb tariffs for Australia

US President Donald Trump has just given Australian red meat producers a glimmer of hope that their beef and lamb exports won't be caught up in the trade war playing out internationally this week.

“Other countries have used tariffs against us for decades, and now it’s time for us to start using them against other countries,” Mr Trump said during his address to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday afternoon Australian time.

“On April 2, reciprocal tariffs kick in. And whatever they tariff us, other countries, we will tariff them. Whatever they tax us, we will tax them. We have been ripped off for decades by nearly every country on Earth, and we will not let that happen any longer.”

This on face value is good news, because Australia imposes no tariffs on American products, and a source has asserted the government would continue to make the case for no tariffs on Australian products.

In fact, Australia is in a trade surplus with the US. According to the office of the United States Trade Representative US goods exports to Australia in 2024 were $34.6 billion, up 3.1% ($1 billion) from 2023 and US goods imports from Australia totalled $16.7 billion in 2024, up 4.7% ($745.7 million) from 2023. This means the US goods trade surplus with Australia was $17.9 billion in 2024, a 1.6% increase ($279.7 million) over 2023.

For the latest complete financial year (2023-24) Australia exported $6.917 billion of agricultural products to the US and imported $2.327 billion of agricultural products from the US.

However, further into his speech Mr Trump reiterated comments he originally made on Truth Social early morning Tuesday Australian time that triggered concern from Australian farmers, highlighting that imported agricultural product would be subjected to tariffs from April 2.

The speech, filled with hyperbolic "love" for the American farmer, included: "Our new trade policy will also be great for the American farmer — I love the farmer — who will now be selling into our home market, the U.S.A., because nobody is going to be able to compete with you. Because those goods that come in from other countries and companies are really, really in a bad position in so many different ways.

"They are uninspected, they may be very dirty and disgusting when they come in, and they pour in and they hurt our American farmers.

"The tariffs will go on — agricultural product coming into America and our farmers starting on April 2, may be a little bit of an adjustment period."

In response on Tuesday Trade Minister Don Farrell told APlus News: “The Government has been working hard to advocate for Australia's interests, including maintaining free and fair trade between Australia and the United States, which benefits both our countries. Aussie farmers produce world class, exceptional goods which are in high demand, and in producing these goods, many of our farmers utilise US agricultural technology and products."

What the fallout could look like for Aussie farmers

On Tuesday's AgWatchers+ podcast, sponsored by AuctionsPlus, Andrew Whitelaw said beef, lamb and wine were the three main commodities exported from Australia to the US, with beef and lamb exports to the country worth about $1billion each for beef and lamb last year - and accounting for about a third of each commodity's world-wide exports.

Mr Whitelaw said if the tariffs went ahead US consumers could continue to buy beef burgers at inflated costs, pivot to cheaper protein sources, or prices could be driven down in Australia.

"All three options are pretty bad for us, and especially so in sheep meat," he said.

Mr Whitelaw's "back of the napkin calculation" of the impact a 25% tariff would have, taking into account the five-year average of beef and lamb trade, showed a $400-$500million hit.

"It would make the live sheep export trade phase out seem like a hiccup," he said.

"We know, and everyone else knows, that the live export ban is having an impact on Western Australian farmers, sheep farmers, especially, and that was a trade that was worth $US31 million last year. If you think, this would be a $200 million impact for the sheep industry, that's massive."

The opposition reacts

Leader of the Nationals David Littleproud described the situation as a "test for the government".

"When we were in power, we were able to get a carve out from President Trump, on Australian aluminium and steel, to make sure that we weren't tariffed. I know there's an even more compelling case now we've got AUKUS, and we're actually buying submarines off the United States as well as missiles and other military hardware," Mr Littleproud said.

"So you would've thought that there's a compelling case for President Trump, who has a trading surplus with Australia, where he doesn't with many other countries, to carve Australia out. So we'll be hoping for that."

Mr Littleproud said he believed American farmers would be the ones hurt, and that there may be an Australian upside to the US increasing tariffs for China.

"The last time tariffs were imposed on China, we actually saw increases in commodity prices for ourselves, because China pivoted to Australia, rather the US. But these are only short-term gains and no one should think that's what we should be aiming for," he said.

"We'd rather see that the rules-based order return, that problems are resolved, and we get on with free trade between our nations, because we're only a nation of 27 million people and we are a trading nation."

The government's ability to negotiate an exemption from Mr Trump's new tariff regime has already been in the spotlight in recent weeks.

Steel and iron export tariff to start next week

There was a furore when US tariffs were proposed to be applied to Australian steel and iron exports last month.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke directly with Mr Trump on the phone to plead Australia's in the days after that tariff was announced - a reasonable action when Australia's steel and iron exports to the United States were worth US$237m in 2023, according to data from Trading Economics.

With Australia's beef and lamb sales worth about $US1billion each last year, it seems shocking that no similar call - not one that has been shared with the media like it was last time anyway - has been announced to fight for Australia's red meat sector.

Mr Albanese's office was contacted for comment on Tuesday afternoon and at the time of publication late Wednesday, no response had been received.

Likewise, Australian Agriculture Minister Julie Collins' media team declined to provide comment on Tuesday.

With the Federal Election - and caretaker period - fast approaching, with punters widely expecting the election to be called on Sunday, there is little time to waste to secure an exemption for Australian agriculture from Mr Trump's tariffs.

The government avoids entering major commitments during the caretaker period, and it can be assumed that Mr Trump won't just happily and quickly exempt Australia from agricultural tariffs, rather there will be a deal to be made that will take time and authority to complete.

With Mr Albanese taking a seemingly less expediate approach than he did with aluminium and steel tariffs - which Australia failed to negotiate an exemption from and come into force next week - Australia's red meat producers and processors may have to wait months for whichever side of Australian politics wins the next election to attempt to secure a deal.

However in reality, a day is a long time in politics when Mr Trump is concerned, so we really have no idea what tomorrow will bring.