The markets are gradually reopening, with weaner sales on the horizon. Despite a tricky spring, there’s optimism in the air. Here's some key points from the latest AgWatchers+ podcast, hosted by Matt Dalgleish and Andrew Whitelaw.
Beef market outlook
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There’s strong global demand for beef and red meat.
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The season looks promising, especially with potential rainfall from a La Niña event.
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Looking like increased supply for weaner sales, and potentially reduced quality due to seasonal conditions, but broadly speaking the result will be OK. He said there was a lot of confidence with the global demand for red meat.
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Beef exports are strong: Last quarter of 2024 was 23% above final quarter of 2023.
Sheep meat market
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Total exports for last quarter of 2024 was 9% higher than last quarter of 2023 for sheep and mutton.
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About to enter into trade deal with UAE, our third biggest market for lamb, which will help expansion.
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Live sheep export in decline, but we've seen a lift in demand for boxed product. It will be interesting to see if they will transition from live to boxed.
Grain market
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Rumours that trump wasn't going to go hard on his tariffs made the market rally a little
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Biggest impact is Aussie dollar hovering 62-63 cents having the biggest impact on pricing
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Aussie dollar more likely to be weaker than higher in coming months, especially if things are weaker in China as is expected.
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China was the biggest buyer of Australian wheat in 2024 - Indonesia and Philippines are also big buyers
Fertiliser pricing
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Urea prices have stabilised around $600 per tonne. However, global supply dynamics could influence pricing as we approach the planting window.
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Lower prices in China might benefit Australian importers, but it’s a situation to monitor closely.
