Beef market promising, buoyed by potential La Nina event: AgWatchers+ podcast

The markets are gradually reopening, with weaner sales on the horizon. Despite a tricky spring, there’s optimism in the air. Here's some key points from the latest AgWatchers+ podcast, hosted by Matt Dalgleish and Andrew Whitelaw.

Beef market outlook

• There’s strong global demand for beef and red meat.

• The season looks promising, especially with potential rainfall from a La Niña event.

• Looking like increased supply for weaner sales, and potentially reduced quality due to seasonal conditions, but broadly speaking the result will be OK. He said there was a lot of confidence with the global demand for red meat.

• Beef exports are strong: Last quarter of 2024 was 23% above final quarter of 2023. 

Sheep meat market 

• Total exports for last quarter of 2024 was 9% higher than last quarter of 2023 for sheep and mutton.

• About to enter into trade deal with UAE, our third biggest market for lamb, which will help expansion.

• Live sheep export in decline, but we've seen a lift in demand for boxed product. It will be interesting to see if they will transition from live to boxed. 

Grain market 

• Rumours that trump wasn't going to go hard on his tariffs made the market rally a little 

• Biggest impact is Aussie dollar hovering 62-63 cents having the biggest impact on pricing

• Aussie dollar more likely to be weaker than higher in coming months, especially if things are weaker in China as is expected.

• China was the biggest buyer of Australian wheat in 2024 - Indonesia and Philippines are also big buyers

Fertiliser pricing

• Urea prices have stabilised around $600 per tonne. However, global supply dynamics could influence pricing as we approach the planting window.

• Lower prices in China might benefit Australian importers, but it’s a situation to monitor closely.

  
  

AgWatchers+ provides a fortnightly update on the drivers of the main agricultural markets in Australia. AuctionsPlus powers the podcast, which is written and recorded by independent industry analysts Matt Dalgleish and Andrew Whitelaw from AgWatchers.