Mixed weather signals, strong markets as producers head towards summer

Producers are heading into summer with a mixed set of conditions in front of them, however, livestock markets have delivered a standout week, keeping confidence high. 

The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) latest long-range outlook points to a split season, with a wetter signal across parts of the east and a drier tendency through the west and the Top End, which should be advancing towards to wet season.

At the same time, above average daytime and overnight temperatures are likely across most of the country, setting up a warm start to 2026.

Elsewhere, the Bureau notes no strong push either way, meaning equal chances of wetter or drier conditions. 

This forecast comes on the back of a very dry October across much of southern Australia. The Bureau’s latest Drought Statement reported large areas of NSW, Victoria, south-eastern Queensland and southern and central Western Australia in the lowest 30% for rainfall. NSW recorded its driest October since 2019, coming in at 59% below the long-term average. Streamflow has fallen below average across southern Australia and parts of central eastern Queensland, and some storages in the southern and eastern states have dropped by up to half compared with this time last year.

While Tasmania recorded healthy falls, much of the mainland continues to see expanding soil moisture deficits. Year-to-date deficiencies have eased in Tasmania and southern Victoria, yet conditions have worsened through southern NSW.

The broader April to October cool season - when southern Australia receives most of its rainfall - also continued a worrying run, marking the third year in a row that southern Australia has seen below average rainfall. State of the Climate 2024 highlights this as part of a long-term trend, driven by higher surface pressure and fewer rain-bearing systems during the cool season.

While rainfall deficits weren't as bad as the same time last year, worryingly some water storages in the southern and eastern states have declined by up to 50% compared to this time last year.

READ MORE: Negative IOD coming to an end, but the increased wet weather is not

Despite the dry lead-in, livestock markets delivered a strong week.

MLA Market Information Analyst Emiliano Diaz said buyer activity was robust, supported by good quality yardings and improving confidence following scattered rainfall.

National cattle yardings rose 8% to 63,414 head, led by sharp increases in Victoria and South Australia, along with a lift in Queensland. NSW and WA moved lower, but overall numbers remained solid. Competition from backgrounders and feeders remained a key driver of the price gains.

The lift was clear across major indicators. The Eastern States Young Cattle Indicator climbed to 898.63c/kg cwt by Friday morning, gaining more than 35c across the week and recovering strongly from its late October low.

The National Young Cattle Indicator tracked higher to 475.16c/kg, while the AuctionsPlus Young Cattle Indicator reached 998c/kg DW, placing it in the top 25% of historical results.

Sheep markets also found momentum, with the AuctionsPlus Restocker Lamb Indicator rising to 1,283c/kg DW, one of the strongest November readings on record.

On the NSW and Victorian border Paull & Scollard Nutrien Branch Manager Tim Robinson was happy to see clients being rewarded for feeding cattle through a tough autumn and winter.

"I think at the end of the day, there is something so rewarding about seeing our clients with a smile on their face and are happy with their outcomes and pleased with the commitment that they made to feeding their stock throughout the winter and that is really important," Mr Robinson said.

Fellow agent Luke Deimel was also all smiles, telling APlus News a client from the Tallangatta Valley achieved $6.62c/kg for some young black steers on the box this afternoon.

"I think both of the markets have held up extremely well with significant dearer trends on many categories across both species this week," Mr Robinson said.

He said the decline of the flock was really starting to show - "I really do think a new floor is  here".

Mr Robinson confirmed restockers were active in the market on and offline.

"Victoria's obviously had a terribly dry period, and they've had to sit out of taking advantage of that for a period of time, and now towards the back of spring, while they've had good rain, and there's feed, and particularly some of that later country,  they're now going to capitalise on taking an opportunity to get in and get a trade," he said.