AgWatchers+: Southern steers dip, wheat prices steady and there's a 'half-flush' of Spring lambs

In the latest AgWatchers+ podcast, industry experts Matt Dalgleish and Andrew Whitelaw discuss what's been happening in cattle, grains and sheep over the past fortnight. 

Cattle markets holding steady but southern prices dip

Mr Dalgleish begins with the cattle market, noting that in northern markets like Queensland, heavy steers are holding steady at about 320 cents live weight. However, Victoria’s heavy steers have taken a hit, dropping 20 cents to 335 as numbers flow through.

“There’s a noticeable price drop in the south,” he says. “But up north, it’s pretty stable. We’re seeing processors’ margins improve, moving from the low 60s in September to around 76% in October.”

This improvement suggests conditions are better than nearly 76% of records, a good sign for processors overall.

Mr Dalgleish also pondered on whether the US election could impact Australian cattle markets.

“If tariffs are reintroduced, it could disrupt beef exports, potentially offering Australia a chance to regain ground in China," he said.

Wheat market steady despite frost and drought

Switching to grains, Mr Whitelaw reports on minimal price change despite recent frost and drought.

East Coast ASX wheat prices sit at around $317, just below the $320 mark from a month ago.

This steadiness comes as Australia’s harvest ramps up and the grain basis declines as expected with increased volume.

“Globally, it’s still early days to gauge next year’s crop conditions, especially for Russia and Ukraine," he says.

Geopolitical factors remain in play, with potential conflicts, such as Israel-Iran tensions, affecting global oil and, consequently, grain prices.

Sheep market sees delayed spring flush

Mr Dalgleish shifts to the sheep market, where delayed spring lamb numbers are making waves.

"It’s a slow start to the Victorian lamb flush, with lighter lambs more prevalent,” he says.

Currently, Victorian and South Australian yarding numbers are down 25% from the average, likely due to the challenging season.

While heavy lambs are up 25 cents to around 845c carcass weight, light lambs have recovered even more—up 75 cents to 710c—though still heavily discounted.

“I'm calling it a ‘half flush’” he explains, predicting prices may ease once lamb numbers pick up, likely within three to four weeks.

The sheep market in Western Australia, also remains heavily discounted.

Listen below or on your favourite podcast platform

AgWatchers+ provides a fortnightly update on the drivers of the main agricultural markets in Australia. AuctionsPlus powers the podcast, which is written and recorded by independent industry analysts Matt Dalgleish and Andrew Whitelaw from AgWatchers.