Aussie ag sector to rebound: ABARES

Australia’s farm, fisheries and forestry sectors are set to rebound in 2024-25, with the gross value expected to be the third highest on record, all while exports are forecast to decline. 

The most recent Agricultural Commodities and Australian Crop reports, released this morning, are predicting that the gross value of production in 2024–25 will again increase after poor seasonal conditions affected outcomes in 2023-24. 

Executive Director of ABARES Dr Jared Greenville said a rebound of up to 6% is predicted, bringing the gross value of Australian farms, fisheries and forestry to $90.8 billion, the third highest on record. 

“The gross value of Australian crops production, as well as livestock and livestock products, are both estimated to increase to $48.7 billion and $36.2 billion respectively,” Dr Greenville said. 

“For our livestock production and livestock products industries this is a record high and the result of expected favourable climate conditions and improving prices. 

“Above-average summer 2023–24 rainfall and subsequent build-up of soil moisture reserves in eastern Australia is expected to provide a good incentive for planting ahead of the 2024–25 winter crop season.” 

Broadacre farm cash incomes are also set to rebound in 2024-25 to $192,000, after significant falls in 2023–24. 

“The forecast improved growing season climate conditions and the expected turnaround in livestock prices in 2024–25 will drive increases in farm income,” he said. 

The 2024–25 outlook is favourable for production, however forecasts predict exports will continue to decline. 

“In 2023–24 the value of Australia’s agriculture, fisheries and forestry exports is forecast to fall by 13% to $71.6 billion, but this follows the record high the industry experienced the previous year,” Dr Greenville said. 

“This decline is expected to continue, with an additional 5% decline expected, leaving the 2024–25 value at $68.1 billion.” 

The ABARES Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume, and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports, as well as forecasts for farm cash incomes. 

Estimates include a detailed analysis of 2024–25 and five-year projections for commodities outlook under two possible scenarios for domestic and global production and macroeconomic conditions. 

The Australian Crop Report is released quarterly and includes forecasts for crop area planted, expected yields and production levels in each relevant Australian state. 

ABARES Outlook 2024 will be held in Canberra tomorrow.