The latest Beef Producer Intentions Survey found Australian producers have the highest level of confidence recorded since reporting began.
The survey, conducted by Meat & Livestock Australia in November and December 2025, started in 2023, and takes the pulse of the industry in three waves each year.
Nearly four in five producers (79%) reported a positive outlook for the next 12 months, while just 3% expressed a negative view, effectively removing pessimism from the national picture.
Net industry sentiment was shown to have lifted to +76, a substantial improvement on +47 in November 2024 and +11 in November 2023, confirming a sustained recovery rather than a short-term lift.
This confidence is also broad-based. Producers cited a wide range of factors including restocking and rebuilding activity, expectations of favourable conditions, confidence to expand beef operations, firm cattle prices, and stronger reproductive performance. The spread of drivers suggests confidence is being built on multiple foundations, not a single market lever.
While sentiment has improved across every state, the most pronounced gains have occurred in Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia, where seasonal recovery has been most visible.
These are the largest year-on-year sentiment gains nationally and align closely with improved seasonal conditions and renewed rebuilding confidence in those regions. Importantly, while the uplift elsewhere was less dramatic, all states recorded stronger sentiment year-on-year, reinforcing that optimism is now a genuinely national story rather than one confined to specific production zones.
Source: MLA
Another notable feature of the results is the alignment between Northern and Southern producer sentiment, with both regions now reporting similarly strong outlooks despite having experienced vastly different seasons over the past year.
Northern producers recorded net sentiment of +79, while Southern producers sat at +76.
This convergence highlights the role of price stability and market confidence in smoothing regional volatility, allowing producers in very different seasonal circumstances to plan forward with similar levels of confidence.
Despite record-high sentiment, producers are signalling a measured rebuild rather than aggressive expansion.
The national on-farm grassfed adult herd is estimated at 29.6 million head as at 31 October 2025, with producers forecasting growth to 30.57 million head in 2026, an increase of about 3%.
At a producer level:
Where herds are increasing, the primary mechanisms are retaining more heifers, selective purchasing, and holding productive females longer - strategies consistent with rebuild decisions being driven by feed availability and longer-term business confidence rather than short-term price chasing.
The survey was conducted through November and early December 2025, during a period of relatively firm and stable cattle prices.
While price is not cited as the single dominant driver of sentiment, price stability is reinforcing confidence rather than creating volatility-driven behaviour.
Producers appear comfortable planning around current price levels, reflected in deferred selling intentions and a willingness to retain stock into 2026.
This stability has allowed seasonal conditions and operational confidence to play a greater role in decision-making than defensive responses to price movements.
It is important to note, however, that seasonal conditions have shifted significantly since the survey was conducted, with parts of the country experiencing a summer marked by flooding, record heatwaves and bushfires.
These developments are likely to influence how stated intentions translate into actual outcomes over the coming months.
One of the more subtle but important signals in the report is a pullback in bull purchasing activity.
More producers reported buying fewer bulls than last year (41%) compared with those buying more (14%), suggesting a cautious approach to capital expenditure despite high overall confidence.
For the upcoming stud selling season, this points to tighter clearance rates and more selective demand, particularly outside the top end of offerings. Buying behaviour is likely to be uneven, with continued scrutiny on genetic value, fertility and suitability.
Seasonal conditions since the survey period are also expected to influence purchasing decisions, particularly in regions now reassessing feed availability and recovery prospects.
The November 2025 BPIS confirms the beef industry entered 2026 with record confidence, minimal negativity and a rebuild that is underway but disciplined. While prices are providing important support, decisions remain firmly anchored to seasonal conditions, operational resilience and long-term planning, rather than optimism alone.
For producers and agents, the message is clear: confidence is high, but it is being exercised with caution which is a combination that underpins market stability.
Producer confidence is at its highest level since reporting began in 2023, with almost no negative sentiment nationally and every state recording improved outlooks year-on-year.
Herd rebuilding is underway, but disciplined, with a modest national herd increase forecast and decisions being driven primarily by seasonal conditions and operational confidence rather than speculative price chasing.
Natasha Lobban: Feb 3, 2026
The latest Beef Producer Intentions Survey found Australian producers have the highest level of confidence recorded since reporting began.
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Alex McLaughlin: Feb 3, 2026
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