Cattle flows to be driven by seasonal shifts in 2025-26 selling season

With the vast nature of Australia’s landscape proving to be no barrier for movements of cattle over time, the past 12 months has reminded the industry of the distances stock travel to reach market or a fresh paddock of grass.

Three major examples of this in recent times have included;

• 2020-21 pull of cattle down from the northern tropics, Far North Queensland, Northern Territory and North Eastern Western Australia, into New South Wales to assist with the rebuild
• 2020-21 migration of cattle from WA into eastern states, also to assist with the rebuild.
• First half of 2025 migration of southern weaner and store cattle into major cattle areas north of Dubbo, NSW.

Seasonal conditions, the cattle cycle and the influence of a rebuild or liquidation have generally aligned to act as the hallmarks and underlying drivers of these movements of stock. The 2025 edition was driven by strong demand from northern buyers and a lack of pasture availability, brought about by below average seasonal conditions in the southern areas.

'History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes'

When considering cattle movements for the 2025-26 selling season for southern regions, including weaner sales, this quote may well prove to be true.

There’s a number of underpinning factors to why,

1. The lack of genuine widespread recovery from drought for Victoria and Southern NSW.
2. Average to above average root zone soil moisture levels north of Dubbo and in pockets of South East South Australia.
3. Northern buyers already purchasing cattle out of southern markets.

The below average spring in rainfall terms and above average temperatures the region has experienced, has limited its chance of a genuine drought recovery in 2025, water availability is also an issue here. Which will in turn limit southern demand for store and weaner cattle in coming months – aligning with the heat of summer.

What next?

With how I began this column, the same way I’ll end it – the vast nature of the Australian continent generally means when a region is in drought, there is another which isn’t.

It would be entirely plausible to see larger numbers of cattle transported long distances again in this 2025-26 southern selling season to reach pasture and paddocks of grass.

Only this time, the buying fraternity and distances cattle may travel will most likely be different – as seasonal conditions in regions change – particularly NSW of note.

The Bottom Line

• Continued interregional movements of cattle are highly likely for the 2025-26 southern selling season.
• Underlying buying demand from alternate regions are key to supporting market prices.
• Alterations of where these cattle go in the southern selling season looks likely to change from the 2024-25 sales.

Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.

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