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A significant confluence brings resistance
Recent weeks have seen a significant milestone hit for those who like looking at cattle price data. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) and the...
Brazil is the world’s largest beef exporter and, therefore, has a significant impact on global exported beef demand. Livestock pricing is heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics. This means cattle prices in Brazil greatly affect the global competitiveness of Australian beef.
Source: MLA's NLRS, ESALQ, Xero
Australian cattle prices have generally run higher than Brazilian prices over the last decade. This reversed in late 2023 when Australian finished steer prices briefly fell below Brazilian ones. This was mostly due to a sharp price drop in Australia and less affected by anything in Brazil. It reversed once Australian prices corrected.
The most significant price shift since was a sharp increase in Brazilian steer prices over 2024’s final quarter. They rose from A421¢/kg carcase weight (cwt) to A611¢/kg cwt, reducing the gap between Australian and Brazilian prices from A246¢ to A17¢.
Source: MLA's NLRS, ESALQ, Xero
Brazilian prices were primarily driven by a substantial improvement in drought conditions. The National Center for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters (MCTI) reported the number of municipalities in extreme drought (the second-worst rating) fell from 201 to 9. Additionally, municipality numbers in severe drought fell from 1199 to 173. This improvement of on-farm conditions lessened the destocking need, seeing less cattle sold to processors.
Brazilian finished steer prices in 2025 have been historically high and remained relatively tight - ranging between A550-600¢/kg cwt. With a constant steady lift in Australian prices, the price gap has grown to A167¢/kg – in line with long-term averages.
Strong Brazilian prices ultimately increase production costs for Brazilian beef, therefore increasing Australian global market competitiveness. Brazil’s improved weather conditions and subsequent price increases will likely constrain Brazilian beef production and exports.
The Bottom Line
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Brazilian cattle prices are near all-time highs in Australian dollar terms.
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The Australian and Brazilian beef price gap nears the long-term average.
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