Lamb prices to peak in 2027: Brett Stuart

Two years ago, Global AgriTrends analyst Brett Stuart stood on the LambEx stage and predicted lamb prices would hit $10/kg by 2026.

It was a bold call at the time, and one plenty of producers found hard to believe and this week. Back at LambEx this week, Mr Stuart admitted he'd got it wrong.

"Two years ago I stood here on this stage and predicted that lamb prices would be $10 by 2026, and honestly, in my defence, I was wrong," he told the audience. Lamb is trading at $11-$11.50/kg.

"Demand is the reason these prices are higher than we predicted," Mr Stuart said. "Supplies fell pretty much in line, demand was the kicker."

That demand story is now central to his outlook for the next two years. Mr Stuart, who analyses global protein markets full-time alongside business partner Simon Quilty, told the LambEx audience in Adelaide, that trade lambs are forecast to peak near $12.33/kg in August, with an annual average of around $12.25/kg pencilled in for 2027.

He's said prices would fade a little after that, but still expected the pricing to be up there into 2029.

"I have to tell people, markets are like airplanes. We haven't left one up there yet," he said.

Since January 2025, trade lambs are up 62%, mutton up 160%, light lambs up 77% and heavy lambs up 62%, on his figures.

Behind the price run is a supply picture Mr Stuart hasn't seen before in two decades of forecasting - pointing to cattle herds in Australia, the US, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Canada all rebuilding at the same time.

Global AgriTrends is forecasting a 15% drop in global cattle slaughter between 2025 and 2028, which would be the lowest kill in 20-25 years.

Sheep supply is tightening on a similar timeline. Mr Stuart's figures point to Australian mutton slaughter down 36% and lamb slaughter down 26% by 2027 compared with 2024, with only a gradual rebuild expected beyond that.

On demand, he pointed to the US, where retail beef and lamb are both taking a bigger share of consumer spend despite sharply higher prices, driven partly by a broader shift toward lean protein among older Americans, and a younger cohort also chasing protein.

Tariffs remain a live issue for Australian lamb into the US, currently sitting at 10%, though Mr Stuart said a proposed increase to 30% appears stuck in committee with little momentum behind it.

On weather, Mr Stuart cited long-range forecaster Dr Art Douglas, who is calling this El Nino the strongest in 70 years but isn't forecasting drought for Australia, tipping average to wetter conditions through spring and into summer.

Mr Stuart was careful to caveat his own numbers. "I'm not psychic, write it in pencil, you might have to erase it," he said, but he's confident of the trend. "The next round of lows are going to be well above the previous lows, simply because demand is different this time."

LambEx26 drew more than 1,400 delegates to Adelaide this week, the biggest event in its history, with producers making up more than half of attendees and almost 50% under the age of 40.