With the release of the Quarter 2 2025 Australian livestock slaughter and production figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) last week, a detailed assessment, combining, on the ground insight + production data can be made on where the cattle herd is at in its current cycle.
The headline takeaway in terms of a datapoint that informs the cattle cycle’s current position was national quarterly cattle slaughter (excluding calves) was at 10-year highs in Q2 2025 and furthermore, female slaughter hit its second highest quarterly level since 1978.
Both figures are a product of the herd operating at multi decade highs, driving higher supplies of slaughter ready stock, both grass and grainfed.
Although, based on industry accepted metrics for the female slaughter rate (FSR) – which is the percentage of females processed as a portion of the total – the FSR for Q2 at 54.5% would indicate the national herd is in significant levels of liquidation – with female kill rates not seen since the tail end of the 2017-2020 drought as Queensland began its seasonal recovery.
What we do know, is that despite these figures indicating otherwise, the national cattle herd is in fact not in liquidation and in 2025 will grow and expand on the back of the strength of the seasonal conditions in Australia’s major cattle producing regions this year.
MLA’s Beef Producer Intentions Survey (BPIS) July wave data supports the notion of herd growth, with 82% of Australia’s beef producers intending to either maintain or increase their herd size over the next 12 months. Or put another way, only 18% intend to decrease numbers. Those kinds of figures and forward looking decision making data don’t indicate a producer’smindset of destocking numbers or herd liquidation.
Therein lies the risk of relying upon data points without utilising on the ground knowledge of the cattle cycle and seasonal conditions, which in turn can communicate a distorted view of where the cattle cycle is actual at, be that destocking or herd growth.
We know the major cattle regions north of Dubbo across the country (Northern WA included) and these producers are not in a destocking or liquidation mindset. Conversations I have with the market demonstrate as much.
What to do about this?
Generally, the Australian beef industry lacks timely, in depth reporting of production and supply information that hinder the sectors ability to understand cycles and shifts.
In order to improve this., two key changes or inclusions would bring substantial improvements to market information transparency;
1. Heifer Placements on feed in the Quarterly Lot Feeding Brief
2. Reinstating monthly reporting of the ABS Slaughter & Production numbers – which was the case prior to COVID-19.
Together, with MLA’s BPIS surveys and other sources, the inclusion of these datapoints would significantly improve insights for the beef industry into market conditions and changes and better align with DAFF’s reporting for live cattle and beef exports.
Swaps update
The StoneX Feeder Cattle Swap’s forward bids and offers have continued to rise, particularly offers, in line with the spot price for feeder cattle strengthening.
Buyers have remained cautious of “chasing” the forward swaps markets higher and sell side activity has slowed in the face of the bullish sentiment and increasing market prices. This has meant that trading activity has steadied as producers hold from making selling decisions in anticipation of a better pricing outcome in the future.
Which means, the swaps market is being influenced the same factors that are driving the spot (today) cattle prices.
Outdated datapoints are misrepresenting female kill numbers which in turn sends misleading signals to the beef industry on its cattle cycle.
Leveraging on the ground knowledge, conversations & MLA’s BPIS herd indicates that the herd will grow in 2025 not decline.
The reinstatement of monthly reporting of ABS figures and the inclusion of heifer placements on feed would improve market information transparency for the beef industry.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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