And just like that, the calendar year of 2025 is fast approaching its twilight, with the formal start of Spring beginning this week.
With that, heralds an exciting time for the beef industry across several fronts, Spring calving well and truly in full swing and most importantly, for many, this window represents the most productive grass and cattle production period of the year alongside the seasonal peak in sales and marketing of cattle.
As the industry looks forwards to how Spring 2025 will play out, there are an array of factors to consider;
Seasonal conditions and producer confidence
Buyer demand
Cattle cycle and supply
The next four to eight weeks for southern Australia will be season defining in terms of whether the amount of rain the regions receives (generally) is able to support a full recovery from drought.
The intent from southern producers is there to rebuild or restock numbers on farm, though the extent of recovery in the south and the length of the spring, determined by grass production based on availability of moisture and rainfall, will be a key determinant on what outcomes this creates for the market. Be those positive seasonal conditions driving shorter supply and higher demand, or a retreat of confidence if seasonal conditions falter. This dynamic is a critical one to watch for the south in the Spring of 2025.
The difference could not be more stark for regions north of Dubbo in Australia (WA included) – seasonal conditions across the north have fluctuated, region dependent, between average to the highest on record. Late winter rains across northern NSW and southern QLD in the past month has further solidified an exceptional spring for cattle producers. Rain due in late September may well be the icing on the cake.
The strength of the season has underpinned confidence in the outlook from producers and the ability to retain cattle to heavier weights, has further fuelled this price rally. Spring being a key production window will support cattle weight gains, general conditioning of cattle & fertility rates in spring joined breeding females.
With grass production peaking through Spring, the intense demand from producers – encouraged by spot feeder prices – should translate to strong demand for restocker cattle through this period.
Restockers
At a restocker level, the signals are strong for intense producer demand through spring, particularly northern Australia (north of Dubbo) with the spring conditions driving demand for cattle to utilise available grass.
In southern markets, if seasonal conditions continue to improve sufficiently, expect the demand from southern producers for cattle to push right into northern NSW, which should provide further support for the restocker markets with added competition.
At a breeder level, PTIC and Cow/Calf units of British cross and Angus content should be well supported by southerners, following a sharp sell off due to drought and herd liquidation.
Feeders
The market demand for cattle in 2025, particularly feeders, has surprised the market in terms of its strength. Looking forwards into spring, this can generally be expected to continue on the feeder front.
Although there are dynamics to monitor which need recognition, namely the profitability of feeding cattle currently. Fed prices have not risen at the same rate as the livestock price, rendering a lot of cattle bought recently and on feed now, delivering feedlots a negative return.
The reach of southern feedlots, extending well into central Queensland, will ensure strong support for feeder prices through Spring. This will aid competition across buyers for feeders and generally support rates.
Expect Angus supply in northern NSW/Queensland to increase significantly, with large numbers of Victorian cattle purchased earlier in 2025 for a backgrounder trade, sold into northern feedlots.
Processors – grassfed slaughter stock
It’s a big if, but if southern Australia does receive favourable seasonal conditions in the next four to eight weeks, and a rebuild can commence, processor cow prices stand to be very well supported for the remainder of 2025.
Any cows producers deem acceptable to retain to be rejoined in Spring will be, and as a result further shorten supply of kill cows available to the processor in the south.
This dynamic looks likely to coincide with a further rally in the imported CL trim market for the US, which will push signals back to the Australian livestock price for stronger competition across the cows from processors and exporters.
Particularly on feeders, there will be large numbers of cattle sold between now and the end of this year, particularly strong supply of cattle with weight.
A significant volume of weaners and light cattle have been purchased by regions north of Dubbo in 2025 from southern areas at competitive prices and stock destined for a trade or to be backgrounded will be sold in northern markets, lifting supply, particularly Angus and British cross cattle.
There will be a very strong spring 2025 calf drop to come out of this year – translating into big supplies of heavy weaners available to be sold in the 2025 sales in northern NSW/Queensland.
This spring for the producer is looking to be extremely promising, with production rates – cattle growth and turnoff weights as well as strong market prices, aligning. Risk remains in the market despite the broad bullish sentiment, but looks unlikely to transpire or influence this spring significantly, barring any major material change in seasonal conditions. That risk is a drying trend beginning to emerge in the eastern states.
Overall. Spring is a fantastic time of the year and the 2025 version for the Australian livestock market, looks to be one of the better ones.
Exceptional northern season brings spring 2025 into focus with the southern outlook to be defined in the next 4-8 weeks.
Southern feedlots reach north, supporting feeder prices despite margin pressure in the sector.
The Spring of 2025 aligns production performance and solid markets with confidence dominating.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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