The emerging forces shaping Australia’s rural industries

In the coming decade, Australia’s rural industries will be shaped by significant forces that have the potential to disrupt how we produce, market and consume agricultural goods.

Understanding how to build on the opportunities and combat the challenges created by these forces, which include shifting global market dynamics, intensifying social and political pressures, and the heightened impact of a changing climate, is the aim of a new ‘horizon scanning’ research report from AgriFutures Australia and Tenacious Insights.

Navigating a Future of Cross-Sectoral Forces reports that now, more than ever, rural industries must prepare to adapt and thrive in the face of an uncertain future – which will see accelerated digitisation, shifting temperatures, disruptive technologies and an ongoing energy transition profoundly influence agricultural systems and supply chains.

Managing Director, AgriFutures Australia, John Harvey said Navigating a Future of Cross-Sectoral Forces was developed through cross-sectoral collaboration and included a combination of expert interviews, extensive stakeholder engagement and desktop research.

“Navigating a Future of Cross-Sectoral Forces aims to equip stakeholders in the Australian agricultural research community with the insights needed to forge impactful and positive pathways through transformative times,” Mr Harvey said.

“By understanding these pivotal changes and preparing strategically, we can help deliver resilient and productive rural supply chains that are ready to build on the opportunities of tomorrow.

“The exponential nature of technological advancement and systemic changes to traditional farm production systems, exacerbated by forces like climate change and geopolitical instability, means that we have to be better prepared and equipped for what comes next. Collaborative research that future-proofs and fosters the long-term prosperity of Australia’s rural industries is vital in order for that to happen.”

Ten key forces

Navigating a Future of Cross-Sectoral Forces updates previous work investigating the forces impacting Australian agriculture, and has been developed to provoke conversation and debate by exploring a range of plausible futures.

These are underpinned by 10 major forces, which include:

The rise of artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence is poised to trigger major, unpredictable changes in the way that rural sectors operate — from customer integration to risk mitigation.

Mandatory climate disclosures

Climate and nature-related disclosures are no longer a ‘nice to have’ as bodies – from trade regulators to financial institutions – consider them when determining factors like market access, interest rates, insurance premium costs and mortgage eligibility.

Radically accessible remote production data

Accessible remote information, such as satellite imagery, combined with the ease of information sharing creates opportunities for rural industries to better share their story.

Geoengineering advances

Tools to alter regional temperature, precipitation and other environmental factors will impact rural industries, however the ethics, impact and economics of this are still to be determined.

From incremental to systemic changes in production systems

While the current RD&E system is excellent at supporting incremental changes, in the future there will be pressures that fundamentally challenge traditional production systems.

Global conflict and deglobalisation shift trade trends

While there remains considerable demand for both raw commodities and finished goods, conditions have become more precarious in recent years, making demand from key partners less predictable and at risk of severe price fluctuations and market access concerns.

Growing risks from climate, human and animal interactions

Humans, agriculture and wildlife will interact more, potentially leading to a greater incidence of disease outbreak and other pressures where improved detection and prevention is crucial.

Escalation of cybersecurity threats

Rural industries, and their supply, are creating more data than ever, with more information being being stored virtually creating an increased vulnerability to cyber threats.

Rare earth mineral demand growth

As rural sectors become technologically advanced, they could be especially vulnerable to an abrupt change in access to, or the price of, rare earth-containing products.

Climate refugees emerge

As severe weather trends escalate, the potential for climate refugees increases, with the Global South particularly vulnerable. This situation will impact rural industries, creating challenges related to policies, commodity demand and labour.

Managing Partner, Tenacious Insights, Sarah Nolet, who authored the report, said horizon scanning is not about predicting the future, but exploring a broad range of possibilities to better prepare rural industries for what comes next.

“The scenarios and forces presented in the report are designed to provoke novel and unexpected ideas, inspire innovation, and encourage a rethinking of research priorities across rural industries,” Ms Nolet said.

“So, while useful for producers and the wider supply chain, this report is aimed at stakeholders in the Australian agricultural research, development and extension community, plus policymakers. It aims to inform and guide the strategic decisions that will shape the future of rural industries in Australia.”

“By considering not only existing challenges and opportunities, and their current trajectories, but also emerging and future trends and how they are likely to collide, Navigating a Future of Cross-Sectoral Forces offers a clearer perspective on possible issues, helping to facilitate proactive engagement at a regional, national and global level.”

Future scenarios

As well as identifying the major forces impacting rural industries, Navigating a Future of Cross-Sectoral Forces also includes a number of hypothetical future ‘real life’ scenarios – from a citrus grower who manages a renewable energy cooperative to a biosecurity analyst navigating cross-species threats – in order to illustrate how farm businesses could operate in 10 to 15 years’ time.

AgriFutures Australia, Senior Manager, Rural Futures, Jane Knight said it was important to highlight how businesses might practically navigate future complexities.

“While the topics raised in the report cover issues that have been on the horizon for some time – what’s different about Navigating a Future of Cross-Sectoral Forces is that it considers how those issues are interconnected across a number of future scenarios and how they can’t be viewed in isolation or tackled alone by individual commodities,” Ms Knight said.

“Australia’s rural research, development and extension community must work in partnership to not only overcome the challenges we face but, more importantly, take advantage of the opportunities before us. It is only through effective collaboration that we will drive the systemic shifts required to ensure Australia’s rural industries are on the front foot and prepared for what the future has in store.”