TOM'S MARKET MUSTER: Strong start for weaner sales, record lamb exports, and US carcase weights on the rise

9 January 2025
What's ahead for Australia's livestock markets? Pic: AgriShots
An article by  Tom Rookyard

The Victorian and South Australian weaner sales are in full swing, with over 13,000 head yarded at Barnawartha (NVLX), VIC, from Tuesday to Thursday. During Wednesday’s Premier Angus Weaner Sale, light store Angus heifers under 280kg averaged 343c, while steers of the same weight made 491c. Feeder Angus steers over 400kg averaged 412c, and Hereford steers over 400kg averaged 381c. Naracoorte is set to yard 8,076 weaners over two days, with day one seeing light steers under 350kg average 420–450c, topping at 470c, while heifers averaged 350–360c.

Buyers from central Queensland and New South Wales have had a strong presence at the weaner sales, adding a distinct northern influence to the market. These sales play a crucial role in the cattle industry’s January calendar.

Fitting in with their animal management, breeders and backgrounders target the sales - which has seen the industry reciprocate. The volume of cattle on offer drawing buyers from across Australia to buy quality lines of cattle. The VIC weaner sales continue into next week with Yea, Casterton, Hamilton Euroa, Mortlake among others holding feature sales.

2024 record year of Australian lamb

2024 looks to be the one of the largest for Australian lamb on record with figures showing an estimated 359M tonnes exported - the largest year for Aussie lamb in the last 10 years. The stellar year also coupled with record domestic demand.

The March-2024 quarter was the largest on record of lamb meat consumer by the Australian market seeing 80M tonnes consumed. Following that lamb consumption slowed, to an estimated 66M and 56M tonnes for the June and September quarters of 2024. TMM-1

Bigger is better in the US

The US doesn’t always subscribe to "less is more"—when it comes to carcase weights, they've embraced "more is more." USDA data from the past 50 years shows the average carcase weight of federally inspected steers has increased by 36%.

In 1970 dress weights of steer carcases averaged 681 lbs; fast forward to 2024, the average weight is currently 929 lbs. In 2020 the average carcase broke through the 900 lb mark and the average has not fallen below that mark since. This is not just a US trend, Australia has followed suit, with average adult cattle carcase weights in 1970 being 207kgs (455 lbs), to now 305kgs in 2024 (671 lbs).

TMM-2

Pandemic peaks are over

Pandemic peaks for retail meat prices looked to have softened, no doubt directly impacted by sheep and cattle market collapses at the farm gate level in 2023. The Meat and Livestock Australia data of Australian Retail Meat Prices saw Beef and Lamb reach 25 year highs in 2022, with the beef and lamb indicators sit at 2,699c/kg and 1,962c/kg respectively in 2022; 2024 has seen the indicators fall 5% and 12%.

Interestingly, 2024 for both Chicken and Pork indicators was the highest since 2000, both proteins rose during the pandemic, however they have both continued to rise YOY. Both proteins experienced challenging 2024 - the avian influenza saw significant media attention; whilst pork also had supply challenges.TMM-3

EYCI and Mutton Indicators open 2025 on stronger levels

Off the back of the Southern Weaner Sales, the Meat and Livestock Australia Eastern Young Cattle Indicator has risen after the Christmas break. Closing on the 23rd of December 2024 at 693c, the indicator has risen 2% to close off on the 9th January 2025 at 705c. Whilst the MLA Mutton has surged after Christmas - rising 20% since closing on December 23, at 365c, to close on the January 9, at 439c.                                                                                   

Source: Meat & Livestock Australia, AuctionsPlus, USDA, ABARES


Tom Rookyard is the General Manager at Ottley Livestock Finance.

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