AgWatchers+ EP8: Betting on wheat, mutton record and China slowdown

In the latest AgWatchers+ podcast, industry experts Matt Dalgleish and Andrew Whitelaw discuss what's been happening in cattle, grains and sheep over the past fortnight for APlus News. 

Sheep and lamb market

November saw the largest recorded monthly volume of exports at more than 28,000 tonnes, following a strong October. Export demand remains robust, bolstering domestic prices even during the spring flush. Heavy lamb prices surged past 900 cents per kilogram carcass weight, with all lamb categories experiencing price rises.

"Heavy lambs went above 900 cents/kilogram carcass weight just recently. So, all across the lamb categories, they've all had price rises over the month, so pretty high levels for this time of the year when the spring flush is underway, which is remarkable," Mr Whitelaw said.

Mr Dalgleish explained that while Australian prices are higher than those of key competitor New Zealand, they remain competitive compared to typical prices in markets like the US, UK, and Europe.

"The main comparison is with New Zealand, and we are above them in terms of pricing presently. That’s a positive—we’re achieving good volumes and relatively strong pricing compared to New Zealand," he said.

Live export trends

Live export volumes have seen a reshuffle in key destinations. Jordan has overtaken Kuwait as Australia’s top market for live sheep, with Saudi Arabia re-emerging as a buyer after a decade-long hiatus.

Meanwhile, Israel’s geopolitical challenges have curtailed its growth as a live export destination.

Western Australian trade lamb prices have stabilised, narrowing the previous 30% discount to Eastern states’ pricing to around 13%.

However, mutton prices in WA remain heavily discounted at 290 cents per kilogram, compared to nearly 400 cents in the East.

Cattle market

The cattle market has shown limited price movement, with heavy steers holding steady at 332 cents. Young cattle prices have risen, driven by restocking optimism, with online indicators increasing by 20-30 cents over the past month.

Export pricing tells a mixed story according to Mr Dalgleish. 

• US beef exports: Stable demand and pricing.

• Japan and South Korea: Prices rose 5% and 2%, respectively.

• China: "average beef pricing coming out of Australia into China, it was down 10% over the last month," Mr Dalgleish said. 

Australian harvest challenges

Heavy rains in parts of New South Wales and Victoria have led to an increase in feed-grade grain supplies. Mr Whitelaw believes this would have posed significant challenges a decade ago, today’s market—dominated by feed grain demand—has absorbed the impact better. 

"I think if this had occurred, say, 10 years ago, it would have been a much bigger concern, because of the fact that we had a real market that was focused on milling varieties and milling grades, whereas now we're just sort of, most of our grain is going out as feed anyway," Mr Whitelaw said.

Listen below or on your favourite podcast platform

AgWatchers+ provides a fortnightly update on the drivers of the main agricultural markets in Australia. AuctionsPlus powers the podcast, which is written and recorded by independent industry analysts Matt Dalgleish and Andrew Whitelaw from AgWatchers.