2024 slaughter numbers tell us beef processors are handling a large cattle herd, with slaughter numbers growing exponentially in two years.
Investments in genetics, improved land management and more grainfed cattle processed drive beef production to new highs, despite 922,000 head less processed.
The beef industry’s move towards cyclical highs is very much in motion, with 2025-27 expected to see the peak in production and slaughter.
On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the Q4 2024 slaughter and production data, providing a full picture of how 2024 performed in beef production terms.
Cattle slaughter rose 1.28 million or 18% in 2024 year-on-year to 8.303 million head, the highest yearly slaughter figure since the drought induced liquidation year of 2019.
Last year, carcase weights were higher compared to 2014 by 12% or 33kg/head.
Despite 922,000 head less of cattle processed in 2024 compared to 14’, beef production reached new records at 2.572 million metric tonnes.
Much has been written in industry about the ability of Australia’s beef processors and their capacity to handle higher supplies of cattle. The ABS data clearly put any concerns to bed and Figure 1 below highlights the significance of the growth in throughput aligning with rising slaughter ready cattle supply.
Figure 1.
The previous two years (2023 and 2024) have registered the sharpest rise in actual slaughter volumes combined in any two years since 1975/76. Further to this, cattle slaughter comparing 24 vs 22 volumes has risen 42% or 2.45 million head.
These slaughter results clearly demonstrate processors ability to handle higher numbers but importantly also recognises how strong the growth in the cattle herd has been.
Grainfed beef slaughter in 2024 reached a record high of 3.14 million head, this was 9.7% or 278,000 head higher than the 10-year turnoff average. Grainfed production as a share of total, was 37.8% in 2024, 1.3% lower than the 10-year average as more grassfed cattle are processed.
Moving beyond slaughter, the genetic investment outlaid and improved land management producers have implemented over the last few years coupled with larger numbers of grainfed cattle turnoff is the driving force behind how substantial the rise has been in beef production has been.
Figure 2 showing quarterly carcase weights since records began against long term averages highlights the above.
Figure 2.
Despite 922,000 head less (8.303 vs 9.226) processed in 2024 compared to the previous production high set in 2014, beef production volumes reached new highs at 5.572 million tonnes.
Expect this production record to be broken again in 2025, both on a quarterly and annual basis.
The data further solidifies the point that we’re moving towards cyclical highs in the cattle cycle, with the largest herd in at least a decade, aligning with big slaughter volumes, high production and subsequently big exports, both live and boxed.
Expect volume records, particularly on production and exports to continue to be broken in 2025. I see this cycle high maturing in 2025/26 and potentially 2027, weather dependent.
The data continues to reinforce the long-term transition to a grainfed centric production system Australia is moving towards. This dynamic does take a long time but the data support it. This means that the producer base in Australia is continuing to focus its end market or production base on feeder cattle and the volumes of cattle on feed and grainfed cattle turned off support this notion.
What the data will continue to show is large numbers of grassfed cattle turned off, particularly females.
Whilst this will be construed as liquidation, as I’ve referenced in a previous article on this platform about herd liquidation, there is a more nuanced approach needed when considering female kill numbers as a share of total and what this translates to the herd’s movement.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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