After a few big headlines and a touch of seasonal optimism, it’s easy to get caught up in the excitement. You hear talk of $500 ewes, rain on the forecast, and tight lamb supplies, and suddenly there’s a sense that you need to act now or miss out. But if there’s one piece of advice I can offer after decades working alongside producers and agents, it’s this: don’t let FOMO, the fear of missing out, override your business plan.
Markets have always run on a combination of supply, demand and emotion. And while emotion can drive a good sale, it shouldn’t drive your buying decisions. If you wake up one morning and decide you need to buy ewes because it’s going to rain next week, you’re setting yourself up to pay top-of-the-market prices, and often for the wrong class of sheep.
There’s a better way to go about it. Have a plan. Be clear on why you’re rebuilding numbers and what sort of return you’re targeting. Is it a strategic rebuild based on long-term confidence in lamb prices? Are you setting up for trade, breeding, or a combination of both? And are you making decisions based on what’s right for your country and your business, not what worked for someone else three years ago?
READ MORE: Weekly Sheep & Lamb Market Report
This isn’t about trying to talk the market down. In fact, I’ve spent a lot of time with processors over the past month and the fundamentals of the lamb market remain solid. Tight supply is keeping pricing firm, and there’s cautious optimism about the direction we’re heading in. That’s the sort of environment where it makes sense to be looking at restocking, but doing it with confidence and clarity.
There will be sheep available. There will be ewes for sale. The national flock is in a state of natural ebb and flow, and we’re seeing plenty of producers reshaping their operations based on what suits them right now. So while there might not be a flood of listings, there’s certainly enough movement to find opportunities, especially if you’re not locked into buying by a particular date.
A bit of patience goes a long way. If you’re looking at increasing ewe numbers, ask yourself: is a $350 maiden ewe the best option for your goals? Or could an older ewe let you grow numbers faster and at lower risk? Just because you’ve always bought ewe lambs doesn’t mean it’s the best move this time around.
There are also more tools available today to manage forward risk. Whether it’s working more closely with processors or using new supply chain options, there are ways to lock in some confidence, even when the spot price feels a little hot. But again, that comes back to planning.
It’s easy to be swept up in the energy of an auction or the pressure of media commentary. But the best decisions are the ones made well before the bidding starts. Do your homework. Understand your cost of production. Talk to your agent, a trusted advisor, and the people you trust. And build a strategy that works for your business, not someone else’s.
Spring will come, and there will be plenty of movement in the market. But you don’t need to panic-buy in August just because that’s what you’ve always done. If the season is six to eight weeks late, then so is the buying window. That’s not a problem. That’s just this year.
Take the time. Make the plan. And back yourself to make the right call, not the rushed one.
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